China is developing its nuclear arsenal faster than previously estimated by the United States, in line with President Xi Jinping’s ambitions, according to a Pentagon report released Thursday.
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According to American estimates, China had “more than 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May 2023” and is on track to have “likely more than 1,000 by 2030,” according to this annual report on “Chinese military power” commissioned by the American Congress. . .
“It is on track to exceed some of our previous forecasts,” he says.
The report also paints a picture of a Chinese army in full expansion and modernization that is increasingly asserting itself on the international stage, putting particular pressure on Taiwan, an autonomous island that Beijing claims as its own.
Those warhead numbers remain roughly the same as a previous Pentagon report from 2021, but a senior defense official insists the Chinese are “on track to exceed our projections.”
“We’re not trying to suggest a very large deviation from the direction they appeared to be moving in… but we are suggesting that they are on track to exceed those previous forecasts,” the official told reporters the condition of remaining anonymous.
And “that’s obviously a big concern for us,” he added.
He called on Beijing to be “more transparent” on the issue while China refuses to communicate with the United States about its arsenal.
intimidation
The report goes on to say that Beijing is seeking to improve its ability to propel these warheads – from the ground, from an aircraft or a submarine – and has “probably completed” the construction of ICBM launch sites totaling more than 300 silos .
For comparison: According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), the United States has 3,708 nuclear warheads and Russia has 4,489, while China has 410.
On Tuesday, the Pentagon accused China of carrying out unprecedented intimidation in Asia-Pacific airspace, with Chinese warplanes carrying out increasingly risky maneuvers around American aircraft on operations or reconnaissance.
Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asia Ely Ratner cited “more than 180 incidents” since fall 2021, “more than in the last decade,” indicating increased aggressiveness by the Chinese army.
The United States has called China its biggest strategic challenge because it is “the only rival that has the will and, increasingly, the ability to change the international order.”
In return, Beijing accuses Washington of pursuing a policy of “containment and encirclement” against China.
Relations between Beijing and Washington are marked by high tensions, such as the incident involving a Chinese balloon that flew over American territory earlier this year.
However, the two countries have renewed dialogue through a series of visits by senior American officials to Beijing in recent months. However, Washington regrets that Beijing still rejects direct communication at the highest levels between their respective military hierarchies.