I’m coming back to this issue because it’s too crucial for Quebec’s future: reducing Quebec’s weight in the Canadian federation.
We already know the trend: Quebec’s demographic weight in Canada has been declining for half a century. We represented 30% of Canada, then a quarter and more recently we were down to 23%.
But the last census taught us two things. Today we fell below this 23% mark. And Statistics Canada projections, based on the census, announced that Quebec would quickly fall below the 20 percent mark in just 20 years.
This scenario, while alarming, did not take into account the Trudeau government’s new increased immigration targets. The annual threshold will be raised to half a million new arrivals. We instinctively knew this radical change would accelerate Quebec’s weight loss, but by how much?
New immigration thresholds
La Presse came up with the idea of asking Statistics Canada to revise its estimates by introducing the Trudeau government’s immigration reform. In this scenario, Quebec would fall below the 20% mark by 2036 and account for just 18% of Canada’s population in 2047. An amazing development!
In summary, in 25 years Quebec will have become a minor player in the Canadian federation. Fewer voters, fewer MPs, fewer ministers: Quebec will have much less influence. A party can easily win the election by not giving a damn about Quebec.
Beyond constitutional disputes and identity disputes, Quebec’s weight loss will become the number one political fact of the next quarter century. Things are happening with unimaginable speed and the political impact will be severe.
This political shift does not particularly appeal to sovereignists. They have a ready answer: let’s leave Canada and rule our own country.
Which Canada?
Rather, proponents of federalism need serious work to offer a credible and ambitious vision in the face of this demographic decline. So far, this variable has not been integrated into their discourse.
Over the centuries, supporters of Quebec’s accession to the federation have not been content with dismissing the idea of independence or extolling the virtues of federalism. They gave meaning to this belonging to Canada. They suggested ways for the development of Quebec’s place in Canada.
Sometimes the federalists proposed further development through constitutional changes in Canada, sometimes they proposed alliances to improve the balance of power in Quebec.
In recent years, the Liberal Party has developed a new vision of federalism. We expect more.
As for the CAQ, underlying its nationalism within Canada is the existence of a certain balance of power. Quebec’s weight loss will force François Legault to reconsider his strategy.
Things are moving fast…