According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which last year installed a “historic” level of 50% more renewable energy compared to 2022, it expects an unprecedented pace in the coming years, although still insufficient given global warming .
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According to the “Renewables 2023” report published by the IEA on Thursday, around 507 gigawatts (GW) of renewable electricity were commissioned, 50% more than in 2022. “A huge, historic leap,” emphasized the head of the facility, Fatih Birol , told the press: the equivalent of the current equipment of Germany, France and Spain combined.
Three quarters of these new installations are photovoltaic solar systems.
China was once again the main driver of this growth (60% of new infrastructure, for example +66% of wind turbines over a year). But Europe, the United States and Brazil have also reached unprecedented levels, India has made strong progress and the AIE also notes a jump in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
For the next five years, the agency expects the “strongest growth” ever in thirty years.
“Renewable power generation capacity has never grown so quickly in 30 years, providing a real opportunity to meet the target set by governments at COP28 of tripling global capacity by 2030,” the IEA emphasizes.
However, this pace is not yet sufficient, adds the agency, which particularly emphasizes the financing needs for emerging and developing countries.
“Under market conditions and current policy status, global capacity would multiply two and a half times by 2030. This is not yet enough to reach the COP28 tripling target, but we are sure that the climate crisis is getting closer and governments have the necessary tools to develop it.” “We make the difference,” concludes Fatih Birol .
Support developing countries
“Onshore wind and photovoltaics are now cheaper almost everywhere than new fossil fuel power plants and cheaper than systems already installed in most countries,” the official points out.
Last year, in particular, the prices of photovoltaic modules fell by almost 50% in one year, and this trend is likely to continue with the observed increase in production capacities, notes the agency, which was founded exactly 50 years ago by the OECD when it was about this went to respond to the oil shock.
The situation is more delicate for the wind industry, particularly in Europe, where it is affected by rising production costs, interest rates and the length of the approval process. But many countries have already adapted their tenders to this context.
The goal of tripling renewable energy is understood on a global scale, with needs varying from country to country.
On the side of rich countries and major emerging economies, the IEA underlines the need to end hesitation in national policies, invest in modernizing and adapting networks, and reducing delays and administrative complications.
For other countries, access to finance and the creation of robust regulatory frameworks will be crucial, the report adds. In addition to setting targets for the installation of renewable energy, there are still no targets in certain countries.
“The level reached in 2023 shows that a tripling is certainly achievable,” reacted Dave Jones from the think tank Ember.
Adding in advances in energy efficiency, “we are heading towards not only a peak in demand for fossils this decade, but also a decline in their consumption,” he believes.
For Dean Cooper from the NGO WWF, “the production of renewable energies is growing quickly, but not to a sufficient extent”: “If you want a planet worth living in, you have to increase the pressure on your governments to put their words into action.”
“It was good that more than 200 countries signed the COP28 agreement,” says Fatih Birol. “We believe the reason they signed it is because they take it seriously. But we believe in numbers, so the IEA will monitor the progress of who is doing what and we will inform the public.”