The Russian invasion of Ukraine is also having an impact France, which has fewer problems with energy dependence on Moscow than Germany and Italy, but risks finding itself with a serious domestic problem: a friend of Vladimir Putin at the Elysée. because Marine LePenright candidate presiding with center macron (further back the candidate of the left, Melenchon), had solid ties with Putin and was probably also funded by United Russia, along with several other more or less populist parties and movements, with the aim of stabilizing the EU on the right. Le Pen is booming in the polls, and now Macron is also facing internal unrest in his government. The hypothesis of a beachhead for Putin in the heart of Western Europe is more than a contingency.
The ascent of Le Pen
The rift between the two candidates who have been considered likely finalists for months, outgoing President Emmanuel Macron and Rassemblement National candidate Marine Le Pen, continues to narrow, including at screenings for the second round scheduled for April 24 it’s planned. While a ‘Mélenchon surprise’ cannot be completely ruled out, the third intention to vote applies with regard to the first ballot and Only 62% of those on the electoral roll say they are sure they will vote.
The trend in recent polls explains why the presidential candidate, after hesitating until the last moment to enter the campaign, has recently gone on the offensive. After being slammed by opponents for his significant absence from an otherwise anomalous campaign where political debate has been sidelined the Covid emergencybefore being overwhelmed and dominated by the war in Ukraine Macron seems to have returned to the attack.
Macron’s attack
This was evident at the only major rally of his campaign last Saturday at the Défense Arena in Nanterre, where he called for a “universal mobilization” against “Extreme” and at Tuesday’s interview with the regional press where he took aim on Marion Maréchal, “heir to a clan that has been present in the presidential elections since the 1960s” when he met two opponents at the same time: the Rassemblement National, which he called Front National by its old name and not by what the party called 2018 gave , and Eric Zemmour, the controversial polemicist whose supporter Marion Maréchal has become. “We have a tandem in action,” said Macron, closing the gap between the two farright candidates.
Zemmour abandoned on the right
In recent months, Le Pen has carefully built an image that is as reassuring as possible, leaving his rightwing rival, former polemicist Eric Zemmour, to deal with the hottest issues of origin, xenophobia, the fight against immigration and criticism of Europe. Although in recent weeks he has preferred to avoid references to Putin.
McKinsey problem for Macron
Macron is also weighing heavily on the scandal uncovered by a report by the Court of Auditors in March about the government’s overreliance consulting firm, especially for managing the pandemic (in 2021 alone, the French state spent 1 billion euros on advice). To further complicate the end of the presidential candidate’s campaign is the fact that the American consulting firm McKinsey (which is on the list of people consulted by the government and some of whose executives are personal friends of Macron) is now the subject of an investigation into the tax fraud.
The polls
Elabe’s latest Opinion 2022 poll for Bfmtv, L’Express and Sfr taken over by Adnkronos sees Macron (La République en marche) in the lead with 28% of preferences (0.5), followed by Marine Le Pen ( Rassemblement National) with 23% (+1) and then JeanLuc Mélenchon (La France Insoumise) with 15.5% (+0.5). Followed by Éric Zemmour (Reconquete) with 9% (0.5) and Valérie Pécresse (Les Républicains) with 8% (0.5). Among the other candidates, who are now far from the top group, the ecologist Yannick Jadot is at 5%, the candidate of “Résistons!”. Jean Lassalle with 3%, that of the Communist Party Fabien Roussel with 2.5%, the Socialist Anne Hidalgo with 2% and the President of “Debout la France” Nicolas DupontAignan, Philippe Poutou, (Nouveau Parti Anticapitaliste) hold ” 1.5%, Nathalie Arthaud (Lutte Ouvriere), 0.5%.