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Although Vladimir Putin has spent over two months trying to bloody and bombard Ukraine to thwart its strategic westward drift, one of his worst strategic nightmares may soon be upon us: the NATO alliance, which he despises, is getting bigger and stronger. And not a minute too soon.
Last week, opposition leaders in Sweden and Finland met with Biden officials in Washington to ask US support for their desire to join NATO. Petteri Orpo, leader of Finland’s centre-right National Coalition party, and Ulf Kristersson, the opposition leader in parliament who heads Sweden’s Moderate Party, met with senior Biden government officials and congressional staffers to discuss support for an enlarged NATO to urge. While both have long advocated NATO membership, strong public support at home for the Nordic countries’ long-standing policy of military non-alignment made this unlikely. But the public and political mood changed dramatically on February 24 when Putin invaded Ukraine.
FILE – Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Yuri Kochetkov/Pool)
Orpo told Foreign Policy magazine it is now “clear” that the Finnish parliament will decide to submit an application to join NATO next month. Kristersson said that after a debate, Sweden, which fears being expelled from the alliance should Finland join, is likely to do the same. Last Wednesday, NATO membership was endorsed by Aftonbladet, the newspaper of Sweden’s largest social democratic party, which argued that Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine had transformed Sweden’s security situation.
FINLAND GREATER CLOSER TO JOINING NATO IN RESPONSE TO RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE
If both Nordic countries join NATO, the length of the border separating Russia from the alliance will immediately double. While a stronger, enlarged NATO will not undo Ukraine’s tremendous suffering — thousands of dead and millions of refugees and displaced people across the country, the wanton destruction of its villages and towns — and will force Putin to accept the expansion of the alliance he determined to divide and weaken, is the beginning of revenge for his war crimes and wanton aggression.
In an interview, Kai Sauer, Finland’s undersecretary for foreign affairs and security policy, said it was likely his country would apply for NATO membership in the coming weeks, partly because of shifts in public opinion. “A large majority of the population now supports NATO membership – almost 70 percent,” he said. Moreover, the strongest political parties that were once opposed to NATO membership now support it.
Sauer said Putin made the same false assumption about Ukraine that Stalin made in 1939 when he invaded neighboring Finland. “Stalin expected little resistance, but the invasion managed to unite the country against him.”
From November 1939 to March 1940, Finland amazed and inspired the world when its much smaller army held off Stalin’s invasion force of nearly half a million men and 1,500 tanks. Although the Red Army eventually overwhelmed the Finns, Russia lost more than 150,000 men in the “Winter War.” “It could be history repeating itself,” Sauer said.
SWEDEN PLANS NATO APPLICATION, FINLAND SIGNALS INTENT TO JOIN SECURITY ASSESSMENT: REPORT
The Nordic countries more than qualify for NATO membership. Both have highly professional militaries with advanced sea, land and air capabilities, according to a recent assessment by Washington-based think tank CSIS.
FILE – September 19, 2019: President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö (left to right) walk the red carpet. (Hennadii Minchenko/Barcroft Media via Getty Images)
Although Finland’s military is relatively small — about 12,000 — that number doesn’t include its strong border guard, nor the fact that its armed forces are supported by currently about 280,000 conscripts and reservists. In addition, Sauer noted, Finland now spends almost 2 percent of its GDP on defense, the NATO goal but few of the alliance’s 30 members actually achieve it. Finland would also bring “one of the largest artillery in Europe” and its impressive technological know-how to the alliance. Two out of three of the world’s leading telecommunications companies are Finnish or Swedish. Finland also buys 64 F-35s.
Alexander Vershbow, former ambassador to Russia and former NATO deputy secretary general, said both nations attend NATO summits and high-level meetings as early members of the Partnership for Peace. Their forces are highly integrated with NATO’s capabilities. “You’re at the table,” he said. Their accession to NATO would strengthen the Alliance’s capabilities. But it would also mean that NATO “would take on the additional defense requirements of having to defend its long borders.” Politically, he added, her admission would “much anger Putin.”
Vershbow foresees two challenges, and yes, both are daunting.
First, how best to provide interim security guarantees lest Russia attack them between their candidacy and accession, a process that typically takes well over a year.
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Second, one or more NATO members could object. Germany, for example, may fear angering Russia and reducing prospects for peace talks and a negotiated settlement to the conflict. Or Viktor Orban, the newly elected Hungarian prime minister, could be “dragging his feet” under Russian pressure.
One such potential crisis was averted in Sunday’s French presidential election when President Emmanuel Macron defeated his right-wing challenger Marine Le Pen, who had promised to take France out of allied NATO command and had consistently defended Putin and Moscow’s policies.
Vershbow said Finland and Sweden are likely to act soon so they could be invited to start accession talks at the NATO summit in June. “But we must not start a fast-track entry that runs aground,” he said. “That would be more of an opportunity than a crisis for Putin.”
Moscow has warned both countries that Russia will station nuclear weapons in the Baltics if Finland and Sweden give up the non-aligned states. But Russia already has nuclear facilities in its Kaliningrad region, less than 500 miles from Helsinki and Stockholm. And military analysts say neither Sweden nor Finland, which shares an 800-mile border with Russia, has much to fear.
Pete Dordal, Jr., the president of GardaWorld Federal Services, which provides security around the world, said that from his personal perspective, the Nordic states’ strategic shift was a “minor nuisance” for Putin, who is totally focused on his “all or nothing” concentrated. Strategy in Ukraine.
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“It’s pretty obvious that Russia is only fighting to support the invasion of Ukraine, which isn’t going very impressively,” said General David Petraeus, the former CIA director who is now a partner at KKR.
“Given the huge contributions of weapons systems, ammunition, vehicles and drones, and other military equipment from the US and other NATO countries, it is not inconceivable that Ukraine could actually launch a counterattack in the coming weeks. With that in mind, the last thing Putin needs is an additional combat operation in response to Finland and Sweden’s announcements of their intention to join NATO.
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