Russia, Ukraine and Turkey are recently [le 22 juillet] reached the signing of an agreement guaranteeing Ukrainian grain exports to the Black Sea for the next four months. While the belligerents account for more than 30% of world wheat production (12% for Ukraine), the war in Ukraine has increased the risk of famine.
In 2021, the United Nations already registered 40 million additional people in food insecurity and potentially more than 200 million by the end of 2022. This situation should prompt the European Union (EU) to pursue a coherent foreign policy and ensure its food sovereignty to avoid new crises.
Limited effects
The Ukraine conflict has severely disrupted agricultural markets by blocking Ukrainian grain exports.
On the one hand, part of the Ukrainian wheat fields were destroyed by the fighting. Ukrainian farmers face difficulties in accessing fertilizers and other inputs.
On the other hand, the Ukrainian ports were paralyzed by the blockade imposed by Russia and partially destroyed by the bombing. This means that more than 20 million tons of grain (ie around 1% of world consumption) cannot be exported.
Also read: Article reserved for our subscribers War in Ukraine: storm warning on the world’s breadbasket
While the impact on export volumes will be limited, this is a symbolic deal for Ukraine to resume trade with the rest of the world. In return for this Ukrainian victory, Russia will receive guarantees for its own agricultural exports and the end of indirect blockades of sea traffic imposed by Western countries.
Also read: Article reserved for our subscribers “In the face of crises, Europe must ensure sustainability and build our food sovereignty”
While Russia has resumed an offensive agricultural strategy since the fall of communism to establish itself as the world’s leading agricultural power, this deal offers it economic prospects not to risk isolation and therefore continue its war effort.
This agreement symbolizes the emergence of a world shaped by the rebirth of national empires seeking hegemonic supremacy over their geographic sphere of influence.
The war in Ukraine marks the return of agriculture and food to geopolitical circles. food power [« pouvoir alimentaire »] Russia directly contributes to the increase in the price of wheat, which has structurally exceeded 400 euros per ton since the intervention in Ukraine [438 euros mi-mai, 325 euros le 22 juillet]. In fact, Vladimir Putin has been able to hold the international community hostage as 45 southern countries import at least a third of their wheat consumption from Ukraine or Russia, such as Egypt (population 102 million) which imports 59% of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia. This increase in food prices will have a double effect.
You still have 52.21% of this article to read. The following is for subscribers only.