1 of 1 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during the NATO summit in Lithuania on July 12, 2023. — Photo: Kacper Pempel/ Portal Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during the NATO summit in Lithuania on July 12, 2023 — Photo: Kacper Pempel/ Portal
Twice in one day, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan managed to surprise the West: first with an additional demand to agree to Sweden’s NATO membership, and then with a surprise lastminute deal.
On Monday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that Erdogan had agreed to submit Sweden’s candidacy to join the military alliance to Turkey’s parliament “as soon as possible”.
Before Ankara’s confirmation was announced, Erdogan took a final step that surprised everyone. At a press conference before leaving Istanbul for the NATO summit in Vilnius, he set another condition for Sweden’s entry into the alliance.
The Turkish President said his country has been waiting at the gates of the European Union (EU) for more than 50 years and in an address to Brussels said: “Make way for Turkey in the European Union and then we make way for Sweden.” ” [na Otan]just like we paved the way for Finland.”
But Brussels rejected Erdogan’s demand, stressing that NATO and the EU have separate processes. However, a joint statement following the NATO deal said Sweden would “actively support efforts to revitalize Turkey’s EU accession process, including the modernization of the EUTurkey Customs Union and visa liberalisation”.
Approaching the West?
While progovernment media in Turkey portrayed Sweden’s support as a victory for Erdogan, experts say this is not a new achievement for Ankara as Sweden is among EU countries that have backed Turkey’s membership.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the Ankara office of think tank German Marshall Fund, believes Erdogan’s actions still send an important message. “I think that after the elections, Erdogan wants more positive relations with the US and Europe and wants to be accepted by them,” says Unluhisarcikli.
“Take for example his words about paving the way for the EU. Nothing’s going to happen and he knows it. But what he means is, ‘Don’t shut me out.’
Another theory is that, faced with record inflation rates and the rapidly depreciating lira, Turkey is changing its balance policy between Russia and the West in favor of the West, primarily for economic reasons.
Ankara could gain economic benefits by modernizing the EU’s customs union with Turkey. This modernization aims to expand the union to agricultural products, service sectors and public procurement, in addition to industrial products. Turkish companies are also trying to protect themselves against the EU’s sophisticated trade agreements with third countries.
Türkiye’s path to the EU and human rights
The negotiations on Ankara’s EU membership, which began in Brussels in 2005, brought no concrete progress. Especially after the attempted coup in July 2016, the negotiations stalled because Ankara’s antiterrorist measures led to human rights violations.
Observers in Europe argue that for a significant revival in TurkeyEU relations with prospects of membership, Turkey must first normalize its relations with the Council of Europe, an international organization set up to defend human rights, democracy and the rule of thumb . law in Europe. It is independent of the EU, but no country has ever joined the bloc without first being a member of the Council of Europe.
Turkey is a member of the Council, but their relations have been difficult in recent years. Ankara has not followed a decision by the European Court of Human Rights, the Council’s most prominent body, to “immediately release” Osman Kavala, a Turkish activist and philanthropist who has been imprisoned since 2017, and Selahattin Demirtas, a prominent Kurdish politician. has been imprisoned since 2016.
If there is no progress in the Kavala case, the Council of Europe will start negotiations on possible sanctions against Turkey in the second half of the year. So for the EU accession process, Ankara has to do much more than approve Sweden’s NATO membership.
Will Ankara get the F16?
Even if Turkey’s EU trip is not aimed at a realistic goal in the foreseeable future, Ankara’s decision on Sweden could be the start of new negotiations with Washington. Recent diplomatic contacts with the United States also contributed to the consensus reached in Vilnius.
On the eve of the NATO summit, US President Joe Biden welcomed his Turkish counterpart’s decision. “I stand ready to work with President Erdogan and Turkey to enhance defense and deterrence in the EuroAtlantic space,” Biden said in a statement released by the White House.
Before the summit, another important statement came from Vilnius. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the US would likely proceed with deploying F16 jets to Turkey in consultation with Congress.
While Ankara and Washington argue there is no connection between the two issues, the developments have led to speculation that Erdogan’s decision to open Sweden’s path to NATO has brought Turkey one step closer to an F16 deal.
Ankara has reiterated its desire to buy 40 new F16 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin Corp and about 80 modernization kits for its existing fighter jets. Despite Biden’s efforts to gain congressional support on the matter, some members of Congress, most notably Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, were unconvinced about the sale due to Turkey’s purchase of the systems. Russian S400 missiles, as well as other concerns including Turkey’s blockade of Sweden’s NATO membership.
After Erdogan gave the green light for Sweden’s accession, Menendez also sent a cautiously optimistic message. The US senator said that despite his reservations, he is discussing the matter with the Biden administration and may soon rule on the fighter jet issue.
“If you [o governo Biden] If they can find a way to ensure that Turkey’s aggression against its neighbors stops, that there has been a lull in recent months, that’s great, but there has to be an enduring reality,” Menendez said.
“The F16s may not come immediately, but given that they will be delivered, strong assurances are likely,” argues Asli Aydintasbas, a former journalist for Turkey, in her Washington Post article.
According to Aydintasbas, a more comprehensive restart could be in the works if Turkey and the West play their cards right. Only time will tell if the new developments in NATO will open a new chapter for Turkey with its western allies.