Now that the 2022 NFL schedule has been released, we have a better idea of which teams might – or might not – benefit from the order in which they play their opponents in which week. But what about final records? Caesars Sportsbook has early paylines for all 32 teams, but which clubs stand out as safe bets to beat – or fall short – of those numbers? We’re glad you asked.
Here are nine early bets we’d be making on teams poised to exceed – or fail to meet – expectations in 2022:
Bears: Under 6.5
Justin Fields may have untapped potential at center, but his new regime has done less to directly help a young quarterback than any team in recent memory. Matt Eberflus’ defense may prove feisty with a little more youth, but at the end of the day you have to be able to score and Fields still has a lackluster line and receiving corps.
Matt Ryan may be past his prime, but he’s still giving Indy a good arm a year after they had a playoff spot in sight. Despite the QB shuffle, Frank Reich has won at least nine games in three of his four seasons on the job. With a red-hot Jonathan Taylor and a modestly improved defense, they should be able to enjoy a pie plan from the AFC South.
They’ve been appearing like they’re about to go to a Super Bowl and certainly Deshaun Watson’s arrival marks an upgrade in the QB as Nick Chubb and Amari Cooper give them additional Tier A weapons. But how long will Jacoby Brissett hold QB with Watson likely to be suspended? Neither the Bengals, Ravens nor Steelers will be weaklings in this division.
They went 9-8 in Nick Sirianni’s freshman year when Jalen Hurts was more effective as a runner than a thrower. Now Hurts has AJ Brown to pair with DeVonta Smith and the defense is looking better at literally every level. With a relatively soft start to the schedule and an even softer finish, complete with several NFC East tilts, they should be in the mix for another wildcard bid.
This is a successful year for Kyler Murray, who is looking for a lucrative overtime, but boy did they catch a tough draw with their schedule as they opened against the Chiefs, Raiders and Rams (sans DeAndre Hopkins) and closed with three of four en route against the Broncos, Buccaneers and 49ers. In an ever-tight NFC vest where drama still lurks at QB, they could stumble.
Ravens: Over 9.5
Lamar Jackson’s receiving corps remains in doubt, but Baltimore really beefed up their defense, adding Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams to an already feisty lineup that’s sure to be healthier. It’s unclear if their apparent doubling down on the run-heavy approach will earn them the AFC, but they have a way back into the playoffs. John Harbaugh has won more than 10 games in eight of 14 seasons.
When was the last time Dallas delivered on preseason hype? Mike McCarthy may be on thin ice after a playoff exit in early 2021, Dak Prescott’s guns – while still solid – look a little different, and the O-Line still have questions. They should no doubt be competitive, but the Cowboys haven’t had consecutive double-digit winning seasons since the 1990s.
Steelers: Over 7.5
Pittsburgh has a tough schedule. In the first half alone, they get the Bengals, Patriots, Browns, Bills, and Buccaneers. There will inevitably be growing pains for rookie QB Kenny Pickett as well. And yet Mike Tomlin is the coach who can never be tallied; He’s never had a losing season in 15 years. Even if Pickett is just okay, they should be comparable to their 2021 selves.
This might be the safest bet of the bunch. As if it weren’t enough that Atlanta is basically right back at the start of its post-Matt Ryan rebuild, the Falcons also have a brutal schedule; six of their first seven are against projected playoff contenders, and they don’t get a bye until week 14. Whether it’s Marcus Mariota or Desmond Ridder in the QB, they have an uphill battle ahead.