News Weather
By Cyril BONNEFOY, meteorologist
Published 12/15/22, updated 01/25/24 at 4:21 p.m.
The winter holidays are just around the corner and temperatures remain unusually high in the region. Discover the first trend for your month of February in this trend!
This week it was exceptionally mild, with temperatures sometimes exceeding 20°C around 1300 meters. This excess will continue in the coming weeks before a further drop in temperatures is likely in mid-February. However, after a very wet start to the winter, the trend will be significantly drier, except in the southeast where the drought will worsen.
Week from January 29th to February 4th: very mild and some light rain in the north
The start of the week promises to be exceptionally mild again. France lies on the western edge of an anticyclone, in a southerly current that brings up air of subtropical origin. There are still plenty of clouds in the north and west, but without precipitation, while the sun shines more generously in the east. Maximum temperatures often reach 10 to 18 °C or 3 to 8 °C above normal from north to south. From Wednesday, the high pressure area will shift into the nearby Atlantic and the current will become more maritime. In the east there will be more clouds, in the mountains there may even be some rain or snow, in the north there will be a slightly less mild atmosphere.
Week from February 5th to February 11th: more unsettled and slightly less mild weather
The worse weather is confirmed for this second week of February in the north. The high pressure area will remain in retreat over the near Atlantic and weakened disturbances will continue to circulate over the northern half. They will bring some rain, but also some snow in the mountains. The sun will be much more present in the southern third of the country, with some mildness remaining. Note that the excess heat should continue to decrease over the course of the week.
Week of February 12th to 18th: seasonal weather, but still very dry in the south
Gradually more stable but cooler or colder weather is expected to return as the winter holidays begin. To the northwest, on the edge of more unsettled weather, some weakened disturbances will still be possible over the British Isles. Elsewhere, fog can be common in the morning, which solidifies under high pressure and then generally dissipates in the afternoon, giving way to the sun. Temperatures will gradually return to seasonal normals in both the north and south. The lack of precipitation and the previously unusually high temperatures will confirm the absence of snow in the Massif Central, the Vosges and the Jura. There will also be very little snow in the Pyrenees; below 1500 meters there will even be no snow cover.
Week of February 19-25: Winter high pressure continues and becomes apparent
No real change, so the month of February ends with dry, often sunny weather, but temperatures are finally in the seasonal range. The flow would be continental with numerous morning frosts. The frosts in the low mountain regions enable artificial snowmaking, while in the Alps above 2000 meters the snow cover should hold well, but in the low mountain areas the snow quality will deteriorate locally. Please note that reliability is significantly more limited from this date onwards.
As you have understood, this trend results in two different periods. Mild weather prevails in the first two weeks, with temperatures returning to seasonal normals by mid-February. In any case, the trend is towards dryness and the lack of snow will be clearly noticeable in all mountain ranges, but somewhat less so in the Alps.
HAS