SERGEI SUPINSKY / AFP
A Ukrainian flag flutters between buildings destroyed in shelling in Borodianka, Kyiv region, April 17, 2022.
WAR IN UKRAINE – As Ukraine enters its second year of war against Russia on Friday, February 24, it fears more than ever fresh attacks to mark this first and sad anniversary. Russia, for its part, is trying to put a hot iron on this date in the minds of Ukrainians after 12 months of falling short of its original goals.
Between the threat of an attack on the Ukrainian capital and the specter of a possible symbolic occupation at the front, Ukraine is holding out after a year of armed conflict, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy underlined on Thursday, February 23. “We didn’t crack, we passed many trials and we will triumph. We will hold accountable all those who brought this evil, this war upon our country,” he said.
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A February 24th under high tension
But Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, is convinced that Russia is preparing “a missile attack” that would coincide with the launch of the “military special operation” by Vladimir Putin’s army in Ukraine, and that it’s only been a year. “Believe me, we’ve been through this more than 20 times,” Kyrylo Budanov from the Ukrainian side Ukrayinska Pravda wanted to reassure immediately, reminding that it would be “nothing extraordinary”, a “small” strike for his country after the last year .
Ukraine is also concerned about the movements of convoys carrying military equipment near the border with the Chernihiv region, which borders Russia in northern Ukraine. “The occupiers are very likely preparing large-scale provocations,” Ukraine’s secret service said on Thursday.
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Chernihiv Oblast is located in northern Ukraine and borders Belarus and Russia to the north.
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A need to achieve significant results that is becoming increasingly urgent for Russia on this symbolic date, February 24, especially as internal criticism is beginning to surface, such as that of Yevgeny Prigoyine, head of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner.
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It must be said that the Russian army has suffered heavy losses for a year. In the face of a series of military setbacks, Vladimir Putin decided to mobilize at least 300,000 reservists from September, leading many observers to expect another major attack in the coming weeks.
Latest Defense Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 23 February 2023 Learn more about Defense Int… https://t.co/2mRC8edmNP
— Department of Defense 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ)
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British intelligence refers in particular to the situation in Vouhledar in southern Donetsk Oblast. “There is a realistic possibility that Russia, despite failed and costly attacks in early February and late 2022, is preparing for a new offensive in this area.” This city, 49 km southwest of Donetsk, is also being referred to as “violent bombing”.
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Vouhledar, a mining town in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, is currently under fire from the Russian army, which is seeking a full-scale takeover before February 24, 2023.
The commander of military operations on this front, “Colonel-General Rustam Muradov is likely to be under intense pressure to improve results after harsh criticism of the Russian nationalist community,” the UK MoD points out. However, the UK assures that “Muradov is unlikely to have a strike force capable of making a breakthrough”.
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A similar situation as in Bakhmout, where Ukrainian officials claim that Russia is still trying to seize this strategic place on the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine.
Laying flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow on Thursday to mark Defender of the Fatherland Day, Vladimir Putin reaffirmed his ambition to increase military-industrial production to meet his needs in Ukraine. “A modern and efficient army and navy is a guarantor of the country’s security and sovereignty, a guarantor of its stable development and future,” he said in a short video. A clumsy response to criticism of the Russian army’s lack of results and progress after 365 days on the Ukrainian front.
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