WASHINGTON New information analyzed by US officials suggests it is a proUkrainian group carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year a step towards establish responsibility for an act of sabotage baffled investigators on both sides of the Atlantic for months.
US officials said they had no evidence that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy or his military leaders were involved in the operation, or that the perpetrators were acting on orders from a Ukrainian government official.
The attack on the gas pipelines connecting Russia to Western Europe fueled public speculation about blame from Moscow to Kiev and from London to Washington and remained one of the main unsolved mysteries of the Ukraine invasion.
International officials claimed that Ukraine and its allies had the most logical possible motive for attacking the pipelines. They have opposed the project for years, calling it a national security threat because it would allow Russia to more easily sell gas to Europe. Ukrainian government and military intelligence officials say they played no role in the attack and do not know who carried it out.
After the explosion of the main pipeline transporting gas from Russia to Europe in September last year, huge bubbles appeared in the Baltic Sea.
US officials said they didn’t know who the perpetrators were or what their connections were. A review of recently gathered information suggests they were opponents of Russian President Vladimir Putin, but it does not specify who the group’s members were or who directed or paid for the operation. US officials have declined to disclose the nature of the information, how it was obtained or details of the strength of the evidence. They also said there were no clear conclusions on this, leaving open the possibility that the operation could have been carried out clandestinely by a group of mercenaries with ties to the Ukrainian government or its security services.
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Initial US and European speculation blamed Russia for the attack, particularly Russia’s capabilities in underwater operations, although it is not clear what motivation the Kremlin would have had for sabotaging its own gas pipelines, as they were an important source of revenue and a means for Moscow to exert influence on Europe. One estimate put the cost of repairing the pipelines at around $500 million. US officials said they found no evidence of Russian government involvement in the attack.
Officials who reviewed the intelligence said they believed the saboteurs were likely either Ukrainian or Russian nationals, or both. US officials said no US or British nationals were involved.
The pipelines were destroyed in September by underwater explosions at sea in what US officials at the time described as an act of sabotage. European officials have publicly stated that they believe the operation against Nord Stream was likely statesponsored due to the sophistication with which the perpetrators planted and detonated the explosives undetected on the bottom of the Baltic Sea. US officials have not publicly stated that they believe in a governmentsponsored operation.
The explosives were likely planted with the help of experienced divers who did not appear to work for the military or intelligence agencies, US officials analyzing the intelligence data said. However, it is possible that the perpetrators received special state training in the past.
Officials also said there are major knowledge gaps between US intelligence agencies and their European partners. But they said it is the first significant clue, emerging from several carefully conducted investigations, the conclusions of which could have profound implications for the coalition supporting Ukraine.
Any hint of Ukrainian involvement, direct or indirect, could disrupt the thorny relationship between Ukraine and Germany and undermine support for a German public that has gobbled up high energy prices in the name of solidarity.
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US officials briefed on the intelligence data are divided on how much weight to give the new information. All spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss classified information and sensitive diplomatic matters.
A leak in the Nord Stream pipeline has caused huge bubbles in the Baltic Sea. Photo: Danish Armed Forces/ AFP
US officials said the new intelligence report has boosted their optimism that US intelligence and its partners in Europe could find more information that could allow a firm conclusion as to who carried out the attack. How long this process will take is unclear. US officials recently discussed the intelligence data with their European counterparts who led the investigation into the attack.
A CIA spokeswoman declined to comment. A spokesman for the White House National Security Council referred questions about the pipelines to European authorities, which are conducting their own investigations.
Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, as the two pipelines are called, stretch almost 1,000 kilometers from the northwest coast of Russia to Lubmin in northeast Germany. The first cost over $12 billion to build and was completed in 2011.
Nord Stream 2 cost slightly less than the first pipeline and was completed in 2021, despite objections from the US, Britain, Poland and Ukraine, among others, who warned Germany’s dependence on Russian gas would increase.
During a diplomatic crisis between the West and Russia, these officials argued at the time, Moscow could blackmail Berlin by threatening to cut off gas supplies on which Germans depended heavily, especially in the winter months. (Germany ended its dependence on Russian gas last year.)
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Earlier last year, after meeting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House, President Biden said that Putin’s decision to attack Ukraine would decide the fate of Nord Stream 2. “If Russia invades, that means tanks and troops will cross the border into Ukraine again, so there will be no more Nord Stream 2,” Biden said. “Let’s get this over with.”
Nord Stream 1 pipeline in Lubmin, Germany. Photo: Hannibal Hanschke/Portal 08/03/2022
When asked exactly how that would happen, Biden said cryptically, “I promise you we’ll get through this.” A few weeks later, Scholz announced that his government would prevent the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from operating. Two days later, Russia launched the invasion.
Since September’s gas pipeline explosions, there has been much speculation about what happened under the sea near the Danish island of Bornholm. Poland and Ukraine immediately accused Russia of planting the explosives, but provided no evidence.
Russia, in turn, accused the UK of carrying out the operation also without evidence. Russia and Britain have denied any involvement in the blasts.
Last month, investigative journalist Seymour Hersh published an article on newsletter platform Substack in which he concluded that the United States conducted the operation under Biden’s direction. Introducing his report, Hersh cited the preinvasion president’s threat to “put an end to” Nord Stream 2 and similar statements by other senior US officials.
US officials say Biden and his top aides did not authorize a mission to destroy the Nord Stream pipelines and said there was no US involvement.
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Any findings that blame Kiev or Ukrainian proxies could provoke a backlash in Europe and make it difficult for the West to maintain a united front in support of Ukraine. US officials and intelligence agencies admit they have limited insight into Ukrainian decisionmaking.
Despite Ukraine’s deep dependence on the United States for military, intelligence, and diplomatic support, Ukrainian officials are not always transparent to their American counterparts about their military operations, particularly against Russian targets behind enemy lines. These operations have frustrated US officials, who believe they have not measurably improved Ukraine’s position on the battlefield and risked alienating European allies and escalating the war.
Operations that sparked a crisis with the United States included an early August attack on Russia’s Saki airbase on the west coast of Crimea, a truck bomb in October that destroyed part of the Kerch Strait bridge linking Russia with the Crimea joined, and drone strikes in December on Russian military bases in Ryazan and Engels, some 500 km from the Ukrainian border.
But there have been other acts of sabotage and violence of unclear origin that US intelligence agencies have had a harder time attributing to Ukrainian security services. One was a car bomb near Moscow in August that killed Daria Dugina, the daughter of a leading Russian nationalist.
Kiev has denied any involvement, but US intelligence has come to believe the assassination was authorized by socalled “elements” of the Ukrainian government. In response to the discovery, the Biden administration reprimanded Ukrainians in particular, warning them against similar actions.
The explosions that ruptured the Nord Stream pipelines occurred five weeks after Dugina’s assassination. After the Nord Stream operation, Washington speculated and feared that parts of the Ukrainian government could also be involved in this operation.
The new intelligence data so far provides no evidence of Ukraine’s government’s complicity in the pipeline attack, and US officials say the Biden administration’s trust in Zelenskyy and his top national security team has steadily increased.
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Days after the explosion, Denmark, Sweden and Germany launched their own investigations into the socalled Nord Stream operation.
Intelligence agencies on both sides of the Atlantic scrambled to obtain concrete evidence of what happened under the sea in the hours, days and weeks before the explosions.
The pipelines themselves have not been closely monitored, either by commercial sensors or by the government. In addition, the search for the ship or ships involved was made more difficult by the fact that the explosions took place in a heavily trafficked area.
But now the investigators have to follow many leads. According to a European lawmaker briefed by his country’s top foreign intelligence agency late last year, investigators were gathering information on around 45 “ghost ships” whose tracking transponders were not turned on or were malfunctioning as they passed the area, possibly to cover up their movements.
Lawmakers were also informed that over 1,000 pounds of militarygrade explosives were used by the perpetrators of the attack.
Mats Ljungqvist, a senior prosecutor leading Sweden’s investigation into the case, told the New York Times late last month that his country’s hunt for the perpetrators was continuing.
“My job is to find those who blew up Nord Stream. To help me, I have our country’s security service,” said Ljungqvist. “Do I think it was Russia that blew up Nord Stream? I never thought so. It’s not logical. But like murder, you have to be open to all possibilities.”