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America’s centuries-old love affair with ice cream seems to be unraveling.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, consumption of regular dairy ice cream, which does not include frozen yogurt, sorbet, and fat-free and low-fat ice creams, has been declining for years.
According to the USDA, in 1986 the average American ate 18 pounds of regular ice cream. By 2021, the most recent year for which the data are available, this had fallen by a third to just £12 per person.
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People queue for ice cream in New York, NY, circa 1947.
For years, ice cream was more than just a frozen dessert: it was a lifeline for American brewers during Prohibition and a way to boost troops’ morale during World War II. By the 1950s, the sweet, creamy treat had become an American sweetheart.
But like whole milk, soda pop, red meat, and other former heroes of the American diet, ice cream has been studied for its health and environmental impacts. After a peak in the 1940s, per capita availability of regular ice cream began to decline in the 1990s and 2000s as health-conscious consumers – including a member of the Baskin Robbins family – switched to sugary, fatty foods or began to avoid them as an occasional, expensive pleasure.
For years, ice cream has held an important place in American cultural and culinary history. A few key moments contributed to the propulsion It gained prominence in the 20th century, noted Matt Siegel, author of The Secret History of Food.
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First there was Prohibition. When alcohol became illegal, “a lot of early American breweries made ice cream,” Siegel said. Both Anheuser-Busch and Yuengling began making the treat. “The ingredients in ice cream—fat, sugar—were a good substitute for alcohol to drown out one’s feelings,” Siegel said. Ice cream is “the ultimate comfort food”.
Drinkers traded a pint for a scoop, and ice cream makers were blissed out by Prohibition.
“Manufacturers are quite optimistic about the trade prospects and agree that this year will see a large increase over last year,” said a May 1923 issue of Ice Cream Field, an ice cream trade journal. “In fact, they say that the volume of the ice cream business will increase year on year as more people use ice cream since the nationwide ban came into effect and people are leaving the pubs.”
Interest in ice cream continued into World War II, spurred by the government’s use of the frozen dessert to boost morale.
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Ice cream aboard USS Maryland in Chicago, Illinois in 1939.
“We’ve built pop-up ice factories on the front lines, delivered individual ice boxes to trenches, and spent more than $1 million on a floating ice barge that patrolled and delivered ice in the Pacific,” Siegel said. In 1946, the US produced the equivalent of 22.7 pounds of ice per person, according to the USDA.
This “exposed large numbers of troops to the ice,” Siegel said, giving the soldiers a brief, cool respite and “feeding the industry behind the ice cream.”
After the war, the new highway system and the proliferation of personal freezers helped make ice cream more readily available both on the go and at home, he noted. “Ice cream and everything that goes with it was an absolute novelty,” said Siegel. “It was something special.”
But the thrill of a sundae or a waffle isn’t the same as it was back then.
“I think part of the reason the ice has faded is because the novelty has waned,” he said. And as concerns mount about sugar’s health effects, ice cream’s image as a healthy treat is fading.
It probably didn’t help, Siegel noted, that one man leading the charge against the ice cream and milk production was John Robbins, once heir to the throne of the Baskin-Robbins’ Ice Kingdom.
After the untimely death of Burt Baskin, Robbins’ uncle and co-founder of the ice cream empire, in 1967, “I began to believe that the more ice cream you ate, the more likely you were to have heart disease, diabetes, and obesity,” “ said Robbins, according to an article in Life Extension magazine.
Robbins retired from the family business decades ago and instead dedicated himself to promoting plant-based diets and animal rights.
Robbins “has an audience of hundreds of thousands for his animal rights, environmental protection and vegetarian messages,” wrote the New York Times in 1992, the same year Robbins published a book on Nutrition for a Healthier Planet that includes recommendations from Deepak Chopra and Marianne Williamson.
Concerns about sugar (and sustainability) have become increasingly common over the years.
Lucas Fuess, senior dairy analyst at Rabobank, suspects the health issue is one reason for the ice cream decline.
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In the freezer section, the selection of ice cream flavors has exploded over the years.
In fact, consumption of low-fat and non-fat ice cream trended better from 1986 to 2021, rising from 6.1 pounds per person per year in 1986 to 6.4 pounds in 2021, according to USDA data.
Add to that the fact that people now have far more dessert options than they used to, Fuess pointed out. At the grocery store, ice cream meets pre-packaged cookies, candy and cake mixes. The frozen section contains frozen cakes, cheesecakes and more.
“As people have more choice and options, and as people become more health conscious, ice cream has not won this battle,” he said.
Others think it’s not so much because Americans don’t like ice cream anymore. It’s just that her tastes have evolved. Today, more and more people crave premium options and certain flavors that end up costing more – as their flavor has become more expensive, they buy less.
Over the years, ice cream has increasingly come in smaller sizes, said John Crawford, VP of Client Insights for Dairy at Circana, a consumer research firm.
“There’s been a shift from those big family ice cream sizes to more individual ‘packaging,'” he said. It could be that the per capita decline reflects the fact that “you’re buying less volume with every purchase.”
Circana has seen a volume decline in recent years. According to the data, purchases of milk ice cream decreased by about 8% in volume from 2018 to 2022. Unit sales have also fallen during this time – but dollar sales have risen, showing that people are spending more for less.
He noted that the size evolution has been accompanied by an increase in the types and flavors of ice cream.
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At Pints of Joy in Sunnyvale, California, scoops of Falooda ice cream are placed on top of the blueberry lavender ice cream.
“As people have switched to the smaller sizes, it has allowed for a variety of tastes [and] Variety explosion,” he said. “If you’re buying bulk ice cream for the family, you’re buying … vanilla, you’re buying chocolate, you’re buying strawberry.” With smaller sizes, people can try new flavors or buy what they like without worrying about whether it’s there everyone likes.
However, smaller sizes are more expensive than bulk packs, especially if they are from premium brands.
In the 2000s, premium ice cream and gelato brands such as Jeni’s, Van Leeuwen and Talenti emerged and enjoyed great popularity. Brands tout flavors ranging from Earl Gray to goat’s cheese with cherries.
The shift means ice cream “could be more of a treat than a staple you might have in your freezer,” Crawford said.
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During a heat wave this winter, a person buys ice cream near the US Capitol.
Even if the trends are directed against traditional ice cream, it is still an important sector. According to Circana, dairy ice cream sales were about $7 billion in 2022. And anyone standing in line at a local bullet shop on a hot summer evening still knows the thrill of waiting for a bullet.
Deborah Lee owned an ice cream shop, Blue Ridge Ice Creams, in North Carolina for about 28 years before retiring. Today she teaches budding ice cream entrepreneurs how to make ice cream.
The product’s timelessness is “the reason I chose ice cream,” she added. “I think it will stay.”