A critical coalition government of the EU, NATO and Ukraine has become likely.
It wasn’t just Slovaks who learned on Sunday night that post-election surveys are not the same as vote counting. As soon as the polling stations closed, international press agencies reported that, surprisingly, it was not the Smer party of Putin’s friend Robert Fico that won the early parliamentary elections in Slovakia, but rather “Progressive Slovakia” (P.S. ). On Sunday morning, there were grimaces in the electoral team of the newly arrived liberal party PS. “Smer is the winner of the elections. This is bad news for our country, for our democracy and for our reputation abroad,” said PS party leader Michal Simecka. “The news would be even worse if Robert Fico formed a government now,” added the 39-year-old former EU politician.
The electoral team of the usually pompous three-time head of government, Fico (2006-18), initially appeared cautious on Sunday. But after 99.98 percent of the votes were counted, it quickly became clear that his left-wing populist Smer-SD (“Towards Social Democracy”) was five percentage points ahead of “Progressive Slovakia” (18 percent ), with almost 23 percent of the vote. votes (42 out of 150 parliamentary seats., 32 seats). The more classical social democratic party, “Hlas” (Voice), came in third place, with just under 15% and 27 seats.
“As announced, I am instructing the winner of Monday’s elections to form a government,” said liberal President Zuzana Caputova, who Fico likes to call her archenemy due to her friendship with Ukraine and the EU. The moderate social democratic party “Hlas” has the role of kingmaker. The leader of the “Hlas” party, Peter Pellegrini, made a reserved statement on Sunday. The 48-year-old former Education Minister congratulated his long-time political colleague, Fico, on his electoral victory. But Pellegrini did not criticize Ukraine or NATO in any way during the election campaign. On Sunday he said: “At the moment I don’t prefer a coalition, but Hlas wants to help build the next government coalition.”
Pellegrini’s problem may lie in Fico’s pro-Russian stance. “We will not deliver any more cartridges to Kiev,” promised Fico during the election campaign. Pellegrini, on the other hand, sees no reason to reorient Slovakia’s foreign policy towards Moscow; he wants to further anchor his country firmly in the EU and NATO.
It is unclear, however, what positions in the new cabinet Peter Pellegrini wants for his Hlas party in order to switch to Fico’s line. As prime minister from 2018 to 2020, the former Smer member showed little firmness. If there is a coalition between Smer and Hlas, Slovakia will be threatened by the dismantling of democracy and a dispute with the EU à la Viktor Orban in Hungary, Fico’s great political model.