NFL
Teams have shown an increased willingness to make changes on time in recent seasons. Here are some possible offers worth paying attention to
Thu Oct 19, 2023, 9am BST
Welcome to trading season!
Unlike the NBA and MLB, where franchises shift into “buyer” or “seller” mode as the trade deadline approaches, NFL teams have always struggled with the same confidence.
This is partly due to the parity of the league: teams are often only one or two wins away from getting back into the playoffs. A win can be the difference between a contract extension and walking out of the building; Quick trigger owners hover over decisions made by general managers and coaches. Why would a CEO agree to a baseball-style asset reduction when he’s soon on his way out?
But the number of trades has steadily increased in recent seasons as teams look to stockpile draft picks and create space to restart in the offseason or prepare for a playoff push. Although these numbers can often be distorted by a particularly playful GM, last year’s Christian McCaffrey deal between the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers could serve as a milestone.
David Tepper has a brilliant financial mind. But let the Panthers run…
Contenders or those on the verge of the playoffs have long felt that it is too difficult to bring in a new team during the season. It’s too difficult for a new player to pick up a playbook and understand its nuances in time for the postseason. But McCaffrey’s immediate impact with the Niners last year — and Von Miller’s impact with the Rams the year before that — should inspire GMs of playoff-caliber teams to be bolder in the trade market before this season’s Oct. 31 deadline. Here are a few things to look out for.
Come get your edge defenders
If there’s one thing teams are always looking for, it’s pass rushers. Exotic Lightning is fun in the regular season. You can place a defensive coordinator on the map. But a good four-man pass rush is what puts a team over the top in the playoffs.
The league is full of top players who could move before November. Chase Young, Brian Burns, Danielle Hunter and Carl Lawson are all players who could make a Miller-like difference in a contender’s pass rush this postseason.
Of this quartet, Hunter may be the most moved. Minnesota’s path forward is uncertain; Will they stick with Kirk Cousins this offseason? And if the Vikings change their schedule, do they give Hunter a contract extension that will pay him superstar money well into his 30s, an age when pass rushers’ production often declines?
However, Young is the most interesting candidate on the market. He’s finally keeping his promise — Washington selected him No. 2 overall in 2020 — after struggling with injuries. His pressure rate is in the top 10 in the league (18.2%), but whether the Commanders want to give him a long-term extension based on a one-year boom is an open question. If they can recapture some value now, they may be inclined to trade it away to a contender like the Ravens or Bengals, like the Broncos did with Bradley Chubb last year.
The Chiefs receiving corps
After defeating Tyreek Hill last year, the Chiefs entered the Tom Brady-Patriots era of team formation. Instead of paying top dollar for a great receiver, they prefer to worry about the pennies and bet on a brilliant quarterback – in KC’s case, Patrick Mahomes – to develop the people around him and allow them to influence the roster in other areas to reinforce.
This tactic worked to some extent. But as we approach the midpoint of the year, the Chiefs have the weakest starting receiver corps of any contender. The Mahomes-Travis Kelce combination won’t be enough if there’s little else to complement it, and the Chiefs have realized their receiver group needs more juice by bringing back Mecole Hardman from the Jets. Neither Skyy Moore nor Kadarius Toney have proven to be an all-down option, and Hardman was never a consistent target during his first tenure with Kansas City. When looking for an experienced team, safe hands must be at the forefront of the team.
Acquiring DeAndre Hopkins would make sense. Hopkins signed with the Titans this summer after flirting with various contenders in the offseason. The fit in Tennessee went as planned: Hopkins is no longer the game-changer he once was and the Titans don’t have the supporting cast to maximize his abilities at this stage of his career. In Kansas City, it might be a different story.
A fire sale in Tennessee
Speaking of the Titans, Mike Vrabel won a power struggle between coach and GM last season. Jon Robinson was in favor of dismantling the squad and starting again; Vrabel wanted to push forward and get what he could out of Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and a solid defense. Robinson was fired and Vrabel was given more say in the squad.
But at 2-4, the Titans are headed for nowhere this season. They don’t have the firepower necessary to stay on top of the AFC South or keep up with the rest of their conference in general. It’s time to cash in and accumulate exchange assets for the future.
There is still plenty of talent on Tennessee’s roster. But without a viable Tannehill replacement in the short or long term, it’s unlikely to matter in a crowded conference.
Accepting that the current roster isn’t good enough to win it all this season, the Titans could get some draft capital out that they can use toward a rebuild. How about moving safety Kevin Byard to Philadelphia? Or defensive end Denico Autry to Seattle? Both players would be significant upgrades for teams with major playoff aspirations.
Who wants Jerry Jeudy?
One could argue that the Broncos are in the same situation as the Titans. Sean Payton could help Russell Wilson recapture some of his old magic, even if Denver’s overall season is a mess. But the Broncos are far from being able to compete at the top of the AFC. Their defense ranks last in the NFL in almost every category imaginable — and the eye test is somehow worse.
Payton will want to remake the roster in his own image. Thanks to the continued pick and cap room payments from the Wilson deal, Denver will need to be aggressive to create some flexibility on the roster.
It makes sense to give Jeudy away. The 2020 first-round pick has shown early signs of being a field-tilting receiver, but there has been little consistency. Trading Jeudy to Carolina would make sense for both franchises. According to NFL Network, the Panthers are looking for a receiver as they look to emulate the Bryce Young model that the Eagles and Dolphins developed for Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa.
Bill Belichick is going out with a bang
Is there anything stopping Belichick from making a big breakthrough? Normally you would lump the Pats in the same bucket as the Broncos and Titans, who need a restart. But Belichick could be on his way out in New England, and while there are multiple levels of management above Payton and Vrabel, Belichick only reports to Pats owner Robert Kraft.
The Patriots have problems on both sides. Injuries have hampered one of the league’s best defenses while the offense continues to look broken. Whether it’s adding some pizzazz to the receiving room, going with an older quarterback or bolstering the offensive line, Belichick needs to do something to try and ignite the Patriots in what could be his final season.
{{#Ticker}}
{{top left}}
{{bottom left}}
{{top right}}
{{bottom right}}
{{#goalExceededMarkerPercentage}}{{/goalExceededMarkerPercentage}}{{/ticker}}
{{Headline}}
{{#paragraphs}}
{{.}}
{{/paragraphs}}{{highlightedText}}
{{#choiceCards}}{{/choiceCards}}We will be in touch to remind you to contribute. Watch for a message in your inbox. If you have any questions about contributing, please contact us.