Two teams struggling to put up points meet on Thursday night when the Pittsburgh Steelers host the New England Patriots to kick off Week 14 of the 2023 NFL schedule. Pittsburgh (7-5) holds the first wild-card spot in the AFC playoffs despite ranking 28th in the league with an average of 16 points. New England (2-10), entering on a five-game losing streak, is allowing an NFL-low 12.3 points per contest and has scored seven or fewer in its last three games.
Kickoff at Arcisure Stadium is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. Pittsburgh is the SportsLine consensus as the 6-point favorite in the latest Steelers vs. Patriots odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 30. Before making your own Patriots vs. Steelers picks, you need to check out the NFL predictions and betting tips from SportsLine's Advanced Computer Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has gained well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks since its launch for $100 players. The model enters Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 176-128 run on top-rated NFL picks dating back to the 2017 season. The top-rated NFL picks are also 30-20 since Week 7 of last season and 31-12 over the last three weeks.
The model also ranked in the top 10 in straight NFL picks on NFLPickWatch over the past six years, beating more than 94% of CBS Sports' football pick'em players four times during that period. Anyone who has followed it is way up there.
Now the model has set its sights on Steelers vs. Patriots and has just set its picks and predictions for Thursday Night Football. You can now head over to SportsLine to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Steelers:
- Steelers vs. Patriots distribution: Pittsburgh -6
- Steelers vs. Patriots over/under: 30 points
- Steelers vs. Patriots money line: Pittsburgh -270, New England +218
- PIT: The Steelers have scored fewer than 17 points in three straight games
- NE: The Patriots have gone three straight contests without a passing touchdown
- Steelers vs. Patriots picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Steelers vs. Patriots Live Stream: Stream TNF on Amazon
Why the Steelers can cover
With Kenny Pickett out with a sprained ankle, Mitch Trubisky will start at quarterback on Thursday Night Football. Trubisky, 29, led Pittsburgh to just two wins in five starts last season but has a 31-24 record as a starter in his NFL career. Trubisky replaced Pickett in last week's 24-10 home loss to Arizona and completed 11 of 17 pass attempts for 117 yards and a touchdown.
Najee Harris, active despite sitting out practice this week, should get plenty of runs against New England but will still have a lot of work to do as the Patriots are fourth against the run (88.7 yards allowed). The 25-year-old running back, who topped 1,000 yards in his first two NFL seasons, has gained 661 yards this year and recorded four of the Steelers' eight rushing touchdowns. Jaylen Warren ran for 601 yards and three touchdowns while making 38 catches for 243 yards, all career highs. See which team you should choose here.
Why the Patriots can cover
Despite a 6-0 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers last week and their second shutout loss of the season, New England had a 257-241 yardage gain. The Patriots also gained 148 yards on the ground despite losing top running back Rhamondre Stevenson to a sprained ankle in the first quarter, and limited the Chargers to just 29 yards on an average of 88.7 yards allowed.
It was the third straight game and the eighth time this year that New England held an opponent under triple-digit rushing yards. The team was solid defensively overall in 2023, ranking eighth in the league with 310.5 total yards allowed per contest. Additionally, the Patriots have held opponents to 10 points or fewer in each of their last three games, averaging a league-low 8.7 points during that span. See which team you should choose here.
How to pick Steelers vs. Patriots on TNF
SportsLine's model leans under the overall score, calling for a total of 29 points. The model also states that one side of the spread makes profits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's TNF picks at SportsLine.
So who wins the Patriots vs. Steelers game on Thursday Night Football and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Steelers spread you should fall on, based on the model of a 176-128 roll in NFL picks, and find out.