Trade Details: The Los Angeles Dodgers acquire RHP Tyler Glasnow and OF Manuel Margot from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for OF Jonny Deluca and RHP Ryan Pepiot
On the same day they introduced Shohei Ohtani as a Dodger, the team made a major trade, agreeing to a deal that included right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot from the Rays in exchange for two young players, right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca, who haven't even reached arbitration yet and have five and six years of team control left, respectively. (The deal is contingent on Glasnow and the Dodgers working out a contract extension, but that is not part of the trade itself, as the Dodgers are only acquiring one year of Glasnow's service and the $25 million he is owed for 2024.)
When healthy, Glasnow is one of the best pitchers in baseball, something he hasn't done in a long time in his major league career. After returning from Tommy John surgery, he struck out a third of the batters he faced in 2023, and his 2.91 FIP would have ranked second in the AL had he qualified, between Championship leaders Sonny Gray and Kevin Gausman. Glasnow was even better in 2021 before the surgery, with a 2.77 FIP and 2.66 ERA, both of which would have led the league had he qualified – although he only pitched 88 innings that year before the injury .
Glasnow is 1.80 meters tall and uses his height incredibly well. At 7.5 feet tall, he has the best height of any pitcher in baseball. He reaches speeds of 96-97 mph and has more than two break balls in his slider and curve. The slider has much more power – Statcast allows it to be thrown multiple times at 93 and changeup, which is illegal in several states – while the curveball has above-average vertical break, which stands out because of this extension. He rarely uses a changeup and hasn't shown any platoon splits throughout his career, but he had some issues against lefties last season, something to keep an eye on in case anything materially changed after surgery.
The bigger issue, of course, is durability: His 120 innings total in 2023 was actually a career high in the majors and the most he's pitched in a season since 2016, when he pitched a professional best of 140 innings to reach his major – League debut. The Dodgers need quality in their rotation, but they also need quantity, with so many question marks surrounding inexperience or injuries. Glasnow gives them quality, but I have no real idea how many innings they can count on him to throw.
Margot could be a candidate for Jason Heyward. (Orlando Ramirez/USA Today)
Manuel Margot is a high-contact, very low-power hitter whose value relies primarily on his good defense throughout the outfield, but since a knee injury in 2022, that defensive value has not been on display. From 2017 to 2021, he was 9 to 12 runs above average in every full season (according to Statcast), but fell to minus-1 in 2022 and minus-1 last season. He's definitely lost a step or two, a decline, which was already going on before the knee injury, so I'm not so confident that he'll be able to fully bounce back in defense.
If the Dodgers want him to team up with Jason Heyward in right field and face left-handed pitching (against whom he has hit .281/.341/.420 in his career, up from .244/.294/.370 against Right-handed), then it will have value. I'm not sure they can rely on him to do more. He has a one-year contract at $10 million and a mutual option for $12 million through 2025.
I mentioned in my report on the Shohei Ohtani/Decoy contract that Ryan Pepiot “was outstanding in five September starts, yielding more hits than ever before in pro ball, although four came against some of the lowest-scoring offenses in baseball. ” ” That's obviously still true, and he won't have to contend with as many low-scoring attacks while pitching in the AL East, where four teams were above the league average in runs per game, and the fifth team just came in with Juan Freaking Soto added.
Pepiot has at least one Grade 70 changeup, and after a disastrous debut in 2022 in which he lacked command and struggled to reach or complete the changeup, he had it again last year and his fastball played better because of it. The changeup has a lot of late movement, especially downwards, and batsmen have difficulty distinguishing it from his mid-90s four-seater because it releases the ball so far past his front. His slider has become a viable weapon against right-handed batters, although in 2022 the story was that increased use of the slider hurt his throwing and affected his command and changeup. None of that was evident in 2023, when he returned after a four-month layoff with an oblique injury; He threw strikes in the minors and continued to do so in the majors, with all three throws proving effective during his time in the major leagues.
There's definitely a risk here, as his history of even average control is largely limited to 2023, but the Rays are happy to take risks on players with those kinds of advantages (e.g. a pitch of the grade 70 or better) and also have a good track record in pitching development. He fits right into their rotation in the spot vacated by Glasnow.
Jonny Deluca, who is not related to NWH manager Whitey, was a 25th-round pick out of Oregon in 2019, debuted last year at age 24 and showed more speed and reasonable pitch recognition for a rookie, albeit with less strength than he had shown in the low minors. I wrote before last season that he was more of a 55 runner and might be moving into a corner, but the speed and defense he showed in his cup of coffee last summer makes the midfield look more viable.
Deluca was a strong fastball hitter in the minors, and his broken stuff issues carried over to the big leagues, which is hardly surprising but is obviously his biggest risk factor. He also didn't score much hard contact in the majors in a small sample, but that doesn't match his time in the minors, where he at least achieved enough to achieve an average performance. The Rays gave Jose Siri and his atrocious .267 OBP the bulk of the playing time at center last year because he's an elite plus-power defender, and he still managed to be worth 2.7 fWAR, which just raises my eyebrows to a level that I can. I can't even explain it. A .267 OBP is a felony against a felony. Either way, perhaps Deluca can replace him at some point, either this year or when Siri becomes eligible for arbitration in 2025.
If you feel like I have reservations about everyone involved in this deal, you're right. I think this creates a lot more risk for the Dodgers because they have more at stake. This year is World Series or bust for Los Angeles, and they just added one of the best starters in baseball who is also one of the most unreliable (at least from an innings perspective). There's a small but real chance that Pepiot gives more to the Rays in 2023 than Glasnow gives to the Dodgers if Pepiot's apparent progress last year continues over a full season in the majors.
There's also a chance it works out for everyone – Glasnow is having his first full season as a starter, the Dodgers are sprinkling their fairy dust on Margot, and he and Heyward combine for five wins in right field, while Pepiot and Deluca are a starter in center Rotation becomes a regular. I only see a wide range of possible outcomes for three of the players, all but Margot, and that increases the risk for everyone involved.
(Top photo by Glasnow: Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)