For the second consecutive day, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced that the population has declined. And faster than last year the agency estimates that the country has 2.08 million fewer people today than in 2022, more than double the decline between 2022 and 2021 of 850,000 residents.
This trend, which is extremely dangerous for China's continued economic growth, is a sign that measures to increase birth rates have not persuaded young couples to have children.
There are a variety of reasons for the decline, but the main reason is the cost of having a child. By this I don't just mean the ongoing expenses that every child needs, for example for education and health, but also the professional costs.
The job market in the Asian country is increasingly competitive, and quitting your job for a few months to focus on having a baby could spell the death knell for your career. For many young people who need to supplement their family income and contribute to living expenses as their parents age, the birth of a single child and the risk of losing their job is an economic risk too great to ignore.
Unfortunately, women around the world still face additional stigma some refusing to hire them if they plan to become mothers in the near future.
Given these complex dynamics, Beijing's public policy response has so far been unpredictable.
Some measures, such as subsidies, tax breaks for larger families and the adoption of labor laws to mitigate the impact of a newborn on career advancement, were welcomed. However, the impact of others shows that they may have been hit without analyzing their possible consequences in the real world.
Take, for example, the ban on private courses and companies that offer tutoring. Culturally speaking, the Chinese college entrance examination the Gaokao is one of the most crucial moments in student life. Acceptance into prestigious institutions such as Peking University or Tsinghua determines not only the academic abilities of a young person applying, but also what their social environment will be like, how far they can go professionally, what their friendships will be like, etc they will marry. .
In view of this importance, a practice that is stressful for many has become established in China: regular lessons and then reinforcement lessons in the following shift. Children of the youngest age had to study marathons of nine or ten consecutive hours every day, preparing for years for the dreaded test. This meant an increase in family bills: in addition to regular schooling, it was necessary to have money for tutoring.
Xi Jinping and company believed that one way to reduce family costs and level the playing field for children who may or may not have access to this additional education is to ban the practice entirely. In 2021 and 2022, several educational groups that offered these services were closed and such courses were banned.
The result? The practice obviously hasn't stopped, it's just become more expensive. Anyone who previously paid for group lessons had to hire private teachers, who of course charged more.
For those already rich, it made little difference. However, the poor families remained behind. A zerosum game that only increased inequality between candidates and reinforced the idea that having a child is an extremely costly whim for the working middle class who kill themselves every day on very long journeys.
The downward trend in China's population will not be reversed. The authorities need to remedy the situation, perhaps by increasing productivity and encouraging immigration (a measure that may face popular opposition). These are politically and economically difficult decisions that cannot be resolved with the stroke of a pen, as has previously been the case.