Note: To show the changing paths of ships regularly transiting the Red Sea, 3,461 cargo ships registered at Red Sea entrances in the last three months are shown. Ship routes before the attacks show ship positions from November 1, 2023 to November 15 and positions from January 1, 2024 to January 15 after the attacks.
Source: Spire Global
It's an extraordinary detour: Hundreds of ships avoid the Suez Canal and travel an additional 4,000 miles around Africa, using up fuel, increasing costs and adding 10 or more days of travel in each direction.
They avoid one of the world's most important shipping routes, the Red Sea, where the Iran-backed Houthi militia has for months attacked ships with drones and missiles from positions in Yemen.
The Houthis have said they are trying to cut shipping links with Israel to force Israel to end its military operation in Gaza. But ships with ties to more than a dozen countries have been targeted, and a Houthi spokesman said this week that they consider “all American and British ships” to be enemy targets.
The uproar is widespread. In the first two weeks of January, about 150 ships passed through the Suez Canal, which lies at the northwestern end of the Red Sea. According to Marine Traffic, a maritime data platform, there were over 400 compared to the same period last year. These detours and the Houthi attacks continued despite air strikes against the Houthis by the United States and its allies.
Note: Attacks involving merchant ships are attacks in which at least one merchant ship is targeted or attacked, usually with drones or missiles. Data status: January 20th.
Source: United States Central Command
Shipping companies have tripled the prices they charge to transport a container from Asia to Europe, in part to cover the additional costs of transiting through Africa. Shipowners who still use the Red Sea, especially tanker owners, face rising insurance premiums.
Container rates have not yet increased as much as during the corona pandemic. However, retailers including Ikea have warned that bypassing the Suez Canal could delay the arrival of goods in stores. Some car factories in Europe had to briefly suspend operations while they waited for parts from Asia.
This could make inflation worse. JPMorgan Chase estimated Thursday that global consumer prices for goods would rise another 0.7 percent in the first half of this year if shipping disruptions continue.
This is what the Red Sea diversion looked like for a single ship: the Maersk Hong Kong. The Singapore-flagged container ship left Singapore for Slovenia on November 15. Just twelve days later it reached Port Said in Egypt after passing through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
On the way back to Singapore, it arrived again at Port Said on 17 December. But when the Houthis then increased their attacks, it made a U-turn and instead traveled around Africa, only arriving back in Singapore this Friday after a week of sailing.
Note: Data is from November 1, 2023 to January 19, 2024.
Source: Spire Global
The Red Sea and Suez Canal have become increasingly important in the last two years not only for ships carrying goods between Asia and Europe, but also for oil and liquefied natural gas cargoes.
European countries tried to stop buying fuel from Russia after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Therefore, Russia dramatically increased the oil shipments it transported through the Suez Canal, much of it to India, while Europe also increased its purchases of natural gas from the Middle East through the Suez Canal. According to the US Energy Information Administration, about 12 percent of the world's oil transported by tankers flows through the Red Sea and almost as much of the world's liquefied natural gas.
Source: World Bank
Note: Vessel traffic density maps are based on vessel positions reported between January 2015 and February 2021 and processed by the International Monetary Fund's World Seaborne Trade Monitoring System.
The Houthis have said they are trying to cut shipping links with Israel to force Israel to end its campaign in Gaza. But ships with ties to more than a dozen countries were targeted, many of them not sailing to or from Israeli ports.
Although no deaths or injuries were confirmed from these attacks, some ships were damaged. A car carrier, the Galaxy Leader, was hijacked in November and taken to Yemen. The 25-member crew, mostly Filipinos, were held there.
The U.S. Navy shot down many drones and missiles before they could reach their targets, preventing serious damage to merchant ships. But it is costly for America and its allies to intercept cheap drones and cheap missiles with advanced fighter jets and other military equipment.
The posture of China, a maritime power, remains a major question in the Red Sea. Beijing has avoided criticizing the Houthis and has not taken part in military action against them. The Houthi attacks have delayed China's annual export surge ahead of its factories shutting down next month for the Lunar New Year.