The term of “Putin whisperer” Sauli Niinistö (75) is ending, whoever succeeds him will follow great steps. Former Conservative Prime Minister Alexander Stubb (55) is said to have the best chances in the first round on Sunday.
Helsinki. A presidential election will take place in Finland on Sunday, something that has never been seen in recent history. Reason: Russia's invasion of Ukraine completely changed the strategic environment of the country that borders Russia; It abandoned its policy of neutrality with a temporary bias in favor of the Soviet Union after World War II and joined NATO the previous year. Russia made military overtures to Finland, its former province, which fell to the Soviets in the infamous Winter War of 1939-40.
Incumbent Sauli Niinistö (75), a conservative, cannot run again after two terms since 2012. He once had close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, at least in terms of understanding his psyche, which is why he was called the “Whisperer of Putin.” He spoke repeatedly with Putin before the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and after, eventually telling the Kremlin leader that his country would return to NATO.
Sauli Ninistöö in 2018 at a press conference with Vladimir Putin. Imago/Mikhail Metzel
In recent polls, former Conservative Prime Minister Alexander Stubb (55) is ahead of former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto (65) of the Green Party (20 to 23%) with 22 to 27 percent of the vote. Both are decidedly pro-European and in favor of protecting the land border with Russia, which is around 1,300 kilometers long, including by force.
Narrow borders with Russia also because of migrants
This is less an obvious defense against military aggression, but rather the rush of asylum seekers, mainly from the Arab-Islamic region, to the aforementioned border. Helsinki has closed most crossings, is building fortifications and accuses Russia of directing migrants to Finland to destabilize it, as Belarus tried to do to Poland, Latvia and Lithuania from 2021. Russians are now banned from cross the border, with some exceptions. Russia has repeatedly halted electricity and timber exports to Finland and announced military preparations due to the “threat” posed by its NATO membership.
Presidential candidates Pekka Haavisto, Jussi Halla-aho and Alexander Stubb (from left) in a TV debate. Portal/Lehtikuva
Nationalist Jussi Halla-aho (52) from the Finnish Party recently came in third place with 18 percent. He is a hard-liner against immigration and calls Russia a “rogue state.” Unlike Stubb and Haavisto, he advocates the active removal of migrants. Due to the practically closed border, only a few illegal migrants cross the border; a few thousand would be stranded on the Russian side.
In addition to those mentioned, there are six other candidates, three of them women. As no one is likely to obtain an absolute majority on Sunday, a second round will follow. Stubb should have the best chance there. In the (presumed) duel with Haavisto, he was far behind in the polls in 2023 and only overtook him in November.
Toughness counts now
Observers say the main motivation among voters is the candidates' attitudes toward Moscow. The Finns (about 5.6 million inhabitants) are disappointed with Russia and, for historical reasons, really feel threatened. “If before it was about who had the best contacts with Russia and knew who was better, now it is about who takes the toughest stance against Russia”, says political scientist Johanna Vuorelma.
The next president will also be the first Finnish “NATO president”. This is also important because their skills are significantly higher compared to those in Austria. He has a leading role in the area of foreign and security policy and often represents Finland at North Atlantic Treaty meetings.