A few days before the extraordinary European Council, which must find the right solution for emergency funds for Ukraine as well as additional funds for migration and business aid (Step), tension is rising among the 27 due to the intransigent stance of Budapest, which has apparently decided to do so Way of “blackmail”. A dangerous strategy.
Many heads of state and government are actually tired of the constant vetoes of Viktor Orban – who opposes the revision of the Community budget and calls for an alternative solution – and even go so far as to invoke the nuclear option or the activation of Article 7 of the Treaties even proposed the suspension of voting rights in the Council. In practice, the EU's red card.
The frustration is not just a question of method – more specifically, blackmail – but also of merit.
Orban's claim that he would not use the Community budget to help Ukraine with the promised 50 billion over four years (a mix of subsidies and loans) actually raises a number of technical problems that reduce the predictability is necessary to really support Kiev. “Some of Budapest's demands can be partially met,” assures a senior European source, “while others face complete resistance, such as the annual vote on appropriations, which would give Orban a veto right that could be exploited at other tables.” And in In the near future, for example, the financing of Migration and Step could get into a tailspin as a result of mutual vetoes between the remaining 26 so as not to give Hungary the upper hand.
However, this is where the issue becomes political. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico publicly stated that he would never approve Article 7 against Hungary; It remains to be seen whether such a disruptive measure is feasible on the eve of the European elections, at a time when the various political families (apart from the legal majority) are looking for possible balances after the vote and arrive at the renewal of the European institutions. “To be honest, that seems rather unrealistic to me,” admits one diplomat.
“If Orban decides to come out on Thursday,” he adds, “there will certainly be consequences, but in a more subtle way.” Hungary’s rotating presidency – scheduled to begin on July 1, according to the calendar – may not be a given more, since a majority decision is enough to change the rotation order.
The fact is that the delay in funding in Kiev is becoming increasingly urgent, also due to the events in Washington. The speaker of the US House of Representatives, Republican Mike Johnson, has warned that the renewal of US military aid to Ukraine will not be adopted because even the Senate “seems unable to reach an agreement”. The European agreement therefore becomes even more important. The technicians of both the Commission and the Council are therefore working on a plan B in case Hungary does not give in, but it would be a stopgap solution that leaves everyone (except Orban) unhappy. At this stage, negotiations are ongoing, but as far as we know, the Council is “ready” to open the Article 7 procedure, which will be activated at the request of one third of its members, the Commission or the European Parliament.
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