The Blue Jays will have a new designated hitter for the 2024 season as they have reportedly agreed to a one-year, $13 million deal with a free agent Justin Turner. The Vayner Sports client can earn an additional $1.5 million due to roster bonuses and performance incentives, bringing their contract to a maximum of $14.5 million. The contract is still pending completion of physical inspection.
Turner turned 39 in November but certainly showed no signs of his age in 2023, hitting .276/.345/.455 with 23 homers, 31 doubles, an 8.1% walk rate and a 17 strikeout .6% average rate in 146 games and 626 plate appearances with the Red Sox.
As measured by WRC+, Turner was about 14% better than league average at bat – in his incredible 10th straight season he was at least 14% above average with the bat. He was one of the best remaining corner infield and draft hitter options and will bring a “professional hitter” to Toronto's lineup – one who is also generally valued for his leadership skills and presence in the clubhouse.
The consistency Turner brings to the plate is quite remarkable. He has not hit less than .275, posted an OBP less than .339, slugged less than .438, or recorded a strikeout in more than 18% of his plate appearances in any of the last ten seasons since he established himself as a starter with the Dodgers Year 2014. Overall, he was a .293/.371/.486 hitter during that time. During that decade, he averaged 24 home runs and 35 doubles in 162 games played.
Turner's contract with the Red Sox was a two-year, $22.7 million contract, with the second season a player option. He took home an $8.3 million salary in 2023 and also received a $6.7 million option buyout when he declined it to return to the open market. Turner has fewer guarantees in this new contract than he did a year ago, although with incentives he will be able to get close to the $15 million he ultimately received for his one year in Boston. And considering that the player option for him was a net price of $7.7 million, he was still clearly ahead in his decision to decline his player option.
With the Jays, Turner serves as the primary designated hitter but can also share time at the hot corner with other free agent signees Isiah Kiner-Falefa (or another acquisition yet to be made). He's also logged 527 career innings at first base, including 289 last year in Boston, making him a viable option for the Wizards Vladimir Guerrero Jr. when he also needs a breather.
If there's one downside to the game between the two parties from a team perspective, it's that Turner adds another right-handed hitter to a lineup that's already leaning heavily toward that side of the plate. He effectively replaces the left-hander Brandon Beltwho, notably, is still without a contract and had a strong year for the Jays in a heavily populated role in 2023.
Left fielder, by the looks of it Daulton Varshomidfield player Kevin Kiermaier and infielder Cavan Biggio are the only left-handers scheduled in Toronto's lineup. No one in this group is a particularly formidable left presence, and all are best served in a platoon arrangement. Turner has slightly better career numbers against right-handed pitchers than against left-handed pitchers, which helps alleviate some of the concerns, but the Jays could still struggle at times against top right-handed pitchers due to their lack of balance in the lineup.
So far, Turner marks the biggest improvement to the Toronto lineup in the offseason. The Jays made a courageous attempt Shohei Ohtani and also met with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but both players eventually signed with the Dodgers. It was also said that the Jays had a strong interest in left-wing swing Joc Pederson before he signed a contract similar to Turner's with the D-Backs.
The Jays have been in contact with a number of bat-first players in the last month and have spoken to representatives of free-agent sluggers such as: JD Martinez, Jorge Soler, Rhys Hoskins and Pederson. Their interest in Turner dates back to at least mid-December, and with that now manifesting in a deal, the Jays are likely out of the running for unsigned DH options like Martinez and Soler. Turner joins Kiner-Falefa, Kiermaier and the former NPB right-hander Yariel Rodríguez as notable free agent picks for the Jays so far in the 2023-24 offseason.
The addition of Turner should push the Blue Jays firmly into luxury tax territory. Toronto had a $228 million payroll before agreeing to terms with Turner, according to Roster Resource, and the Jays were already just over the $237 million luxury limit. Turner will move both numbers forward by $13 million. Since the Jays are paying the tax for the second time, their penalty will be fairly light: a simple 30% tax on the first $20 million they exceed the threshold, and another 42% tax for the next $20 million, with more to come.
In terms of signing Turner, they will end up having to pay a luxury fine of $3.9 million, which obviously wasn't a significant deterrent for them. The Opening Day payroll of $240 million that the Jays are now expected to make represents a franchise record in the $30 million range, surpassing the high mark of $210 million set just last year year was set up.
Looking forward, it still seems possible that further moves will need to be made by the Jays, who are currently planning to split playing time at second and third base between Biggio, Kiner-Falefa, Davis Schneider And Santiago Espinal. Schneider, in particular, had an intriguing debut in 2023, hitting .276/.404/.603 – but that was a tiny sampling of 141 plate appearances and came with a .369 BABIP in addition to a 30.5% strikeout rate . A certain amount of regression is certainly to be expected. Kiner-Falefa is best known for his defensive versatility and is a better utility option than a regular player. Biggio had a solid performance on the court in 2023, but never came close to repeating his 2019-20 numbers. Espinal posted the worst performance of his career, hitting .248/.310/.335.
In the rotation, Toronto still faces some uncertainty at the back end of the group. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and a resurgence Jose Berrios form a strong top three, but Yusei Kikuchi There was a lack of consistency from year to year Alek Manoah struggled through a disastrous season on the mound. The aforementioned Rodriguez could be a rotation option at some point, but that's more likely in 2025 since he'll be on a strict innings count this season. Top view Ricky Tiedemann could also debut in 2024, but has only four innings above the Double-A level so far.
The Blue Jays have been linked to several high-profile and unsigned names – Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell And Matt Chapman underneath. Re-signing Chapman is a better fit from a roster construction perspective as Toronto has Varsho, Kiermaier and George Springer over the outfield and now Turner as the designated hitter, making rotation including the DH spot more difficult. Adding another bat and/or rotation component would help ease the pain of missing out on top targets early in the winter, although it remains unclear how much more owners are willing to spend after already exceeding the previous spending levels Franchises have been overshot.
Jon Morosi of MLB Network first reported that the agreement and that Conditions.