The exclusion of María Corina Machado as a presidential candidate threatens Venezuela's recent international progress. The White House has given President Nicolás Maduro a two-month ultimatum to allow disqualified opposition candidates to take part in the upcoming elections. The United States also gave all U.S. companies that engage in transactions with a Venezuelan state-owned gold mining company until February 13 to wind them down, revoking one of the concessions granted under the Barbados agreements with opposition leaders. These moves are a direct response to the Venezuelan Supreme Court's decision to uphold the ban on Machado and former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, despite Machado's victory in the primary elections last October.
The April deadline is subject to the expiration of the decrees granting licenses to US oil companies signed in November last year. Washington agreed to ease some sanctions to encourage the Venezuelan government to resume negotiations with the opposition on a democratic solution to the country's ongoing crisis. Although this easing of sanctions by the US had only a limited impact on the country's economy, it was a significant first step.
The Maduro regime had its own interpretation of the Barbados Accords. While he opened the door for four smaller candidates to run in the upcoming elections, he blocked the opposition's top candidate, Machado, and Capriles, a veteran politician who ran against Maduro in the 2013 election. The United States is clearly dissatisfied and is trying to maintain the negotiation process by gradually withdrawing concessions. “They have until the spring to meet their obligations,” said John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council. “You have to make decisions before we consider what decisions we will make.”
Venezuela's ongoing economic and political crisis shows no signs of abating. Machado has not stopped campaigning, while Maduro stubbornly persists, risking that his latest overtures to Washington could fail. Jorge Rodríguez, president of parliament and head of the delegation negotiating with the US and opposition leaders, says the ban on Machado is irreversible and accuses her of being involved in a corruption plot during Juan Guaidó's interim presidency. The ban stems from the same 2014 investigation that cited alleged irregularities in Machado's asset declaration while he was a lawmaker.
The Venezuelan government recently pushed through some sanctions relief, allowing global oil companies to resume doing business with PDVSA, the state oil company. It also successfully negotiated the exchange of Alex Saab for imprisoned Americans and political prisoners. Saab was arrested and imprisoned in Miami on money laundering charges. The Venezuelan government values Saab and Maduro said he acted as a “special envoy” to help Venezuela weather crippling international financial sanctions. Saab now heads the Venezuelan International Investment Center. Meanwhile, the U.S. recently authorized deportation flights to Venezuela to address immigration pressures, a priority for President Biden, who faces a tough re-election campaign this year.
The Venezuelan opposition continues to face severe legal defeats and harassment by the Maduro regime. The government baselessly accused Machado's team and others of five separate assassinations and arrested those involved in the conspiracy. These alleged assassination plots have been used to accuse the opposition of violating the Barbados Accords, further undermining the front-runner's efforts to change government after 25 years under Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro. Machado says she is closely monitoring negotiations with the U.S. and plans to appeal the Supreme Court's decision to stay in the race. But the ruling regime has shown no signs of being willing to loosen its stranglehold on power in Venezuela.
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