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Vladimir Putin's forces captured the city of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine this Saturday (17), marking the Kremlin's biggest military victory in almost a year. The location is considered key to the conquest of the Donetsk region, around 55% of whose territory is already controlled by the Russians.
On Friday (16), the Ukrainian army began to leave the city to avoid a total siege by Moscow troops, which have increased their attacks on the site since the end of last year. According to General Oleksandr Tarnavskii, who was in charge of the operation on the Kiev side, some of his soldiers were nevertheless captured.
“In the final stages of the operation [de retirada]“Under the pressure of superior enemy forces, a certain number of Ukrainian military personnel were captured,” the general writes in Telegram. According to him, his forces were regrouped in a secondary defensive line west of the city.
Avdiivka is now another ruin in Ukraine, about 15 km north of the eponymous capital of Donetsk province, one of the four regions that Putin illegally annexed the year before last, although he did not retain full control of it. Before the war it had 32,000 inhabitants.
For military analysts, the capture of the city opens the way for Putin to conquer the Donetsk region, which, along with neighboring Luhansk, forms the historical territory of the Donbass (Don Basin in Russian).
The capital Donetsk had already been in the hands of proRussian separatists since the start of the civil war in 2014, foreshadowing the invasion that will be completed in two years on the 24th. Ukraine transferred the administration of the region to Kramatorsk, which is 80 km away. north of Avdiivka.
It is the most important Russian victory in the war since the capture of Bakhmut, 70 km northeast of the city captured this Saturday, in May last year. Thereafter, the most important military development on the ground was the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in June.
This is bad news for Volodimir Zelensky's government. He changed leadership of the Bundeswehr two weeks ago. Under pressure on the ground, new commander Oleksandr Sirskii has opted for more spectacular actions to keep troops morale up missile strikes on Russian cities and the sinking of a large Black Sea Fleet ship.
But their situation is precarious, not least because of the lack of ammunition. Kiev said it was fighting a 51 disadvantage in terms of available artillery in Avdiivka. Making matters worse, the main military aid package for Ukraine, the R$300 billion promised by Joe Biden, is being held up by Republican opposition in the US House of Representatives.
This Saturday (16), Zelenski appealed to the heads of state and government gathered at the Munich Security Conference, the most traditional meeting of its kind in Europe. “Unfortunately, artificially depriving Ukraine of weapons, especially artillery and longrange weapons, allows Putin to adapt to the current intensity of the war,” he said.
He demanded these antiaircraft weapons and batteries. The pressure on European countries is also great: Germany refuses to supply the Taurus longrange cruise missiles for fear that they would be used against Russian territory and the war would escalate.
German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz avoided directly answering reporters' questions about the Taurus. As for ammunition, the European Union has already stated that by March it will be able to deliver only a third of what was promised to Kiev.
If the capture of Avdiivka is indeed the beginning of the conquest of Donetsk, Putin will have an ideal piece of political propaganda to present to voters in the March 1517 presidential election.
It's a delicate moment in Russia, following the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalni in prison this Friday, and all the president wants is a military advantage according to polls, the war continues with the support of 75% of the population.