CNN –
The Biden administration is racing against the clock as it tries to reach a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war before Ramadan next month, with senior US officials believing the release of Israeli hostages from Gaza is the only plausible path, to bring about the first break in the deadly conflict since a seven-day ceasefire in late November – and possibly an eventual end to the war.
At the heart of discussions about the hostage deal is Israel's threat to launch an offensive in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, where around 1.5 million displaced Gazans have fled. U.S. officials have specifically warned Israel not to push further south without ensuring the safety of these civilians – a seemingly impossible task.
“If there is an operation against Rafah, we can forget about a deal being struck,” said a diplomat familiar with negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which are brokered by Qatar, Egypt and the United States.
With the Muslim holy month of Ramadan beginning March 10, the next two weeks of negotiations are “crucial,” a source familiar with the ongoing effort told CNN. An aggressive military push by Israel during Ramadan would only further escalate tensions across the region.
What is less clear to some officials involved in the discussions is to what extent Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would prefer a pause in fighting to an offensive in Rafah to continue his goal of crushing Hamas.
“At the moment it doesn’t look like Netanyahu is ready for a deal,” the diplomat said.
The stakes could hardly be higher now, given that a successful deal could usher in a new and potentially final phase of a war now in its fifth month. Sources say that despite some progress in recent weeks, the pause and hostage talks have been difficult – and far more complicated than the first round of negotiations.
Several of President Joe Biden's top national security officials have traveled to the Middle East in quick succession in recent weeks, pushing Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement that would trigger an initial six-week pause in fighting and eventually the release of the more than 100 people remaining hostages.
White House Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk was back in Cairo on Wednesday before traveling to Israel on Thursday to continue those efforts; His trip follows CIA Director Bill Burns' visit to the region last week, which included stops in Doha, Israel and Cairo.
Burns is expected to travel to Paris on Friday for further talks with Israeli, Qatari and Egyptian officials, according to two sources familiar with the plans.
Hamas leaders were also in Cairo this week, meeting with Egyptian officials to try to advance the deal after Netanyahu dismissed the latest series of Hamas proposals as “delusions.”
The framework included a series of multi-stage pauses that would amount to at least a four-and-a-half-month ceasefire while hostages and Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons would be released. The biggest sticking points, according to people familiar with the talks, included Hamas' demands for the release of around 1,500 prisoners in the first phase, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and discussions that would lead to a formal end to the war.
At follow-up meetings last week in Cairo with intelligence chiefs from Israel, the United States, Egypt and the prime minister of Qatar, the Israeli delegation was only willing to discuss the humanitarian aid aspects of a deal, not the other components, the diplomat familiar with the discussions said. Israel did not send a technical team with its delegation, evidence that it has no real intention to negotiate, the diplomat said.
Israel then added another condition: proof that medicine sent to Gaza for the hostages had actually reached them.
“This is very important because it shows us that someone is there [in Gaza] This can actually extradite and release our hostages,” Gal Hirsch, the Israeli government’s hostage coordinator, told CNN on Saturday at the Munich Security Conference.
In response, Dr. Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari said on Tuesday that Qatar had confirmation from Hamas that it had received a shipment of medicine for Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip.
“Qatar has received these confirmations as a broker of the agreement,” Al-Ansari said in a written statement.
While Israel appears entrenched in its position, negotiators expect Hamas to respond again in the coming days. However, given the remaining gaps, a final agreement still does not appear to be imminent.
U.S. and United Nations officials and international aid groups have warned of catastrophe if Israel advances into Rafah, where Palestinians are desperately seeking shelter and distance from the worst of the fighting. Israeli warplanes have already bombed Rafah, with an attack last week killing more than 100 people.
In a draft U.S. resolution circulated at the United Nations on Monday, American officials wrote that “such a major ground offensive should not be carried out under the current circumstances.”
But Israeli officials continue to warn about the impending operation.
“The world needs to know, and Hamas leaders need to know – if our hostages are not home by Ramadan, the fighting will continue all the way to the Rafah area,” Israeli War Minister Benny Gantz warned over the weekend.
The first hostage deal in late November called for the return of dozens of hostages captured by Hamas on October 7 and a week-long ceasefire. Since the end of that ceasefire three months ago, the number of civilian casualties in Gaza has continued to rise, as has global condemnation of the Israeli military operation and political pressure on the Biden administration to call for a permanent end to the war.
Senior U.S. officials believe there is no chance for Israel to reach the point where it would agree to a permanent ceasefire in the war without the release of hostages, sources say. Only during a lull in fighting, even if considered temporary, could the discussions that would eventually end the war continue, they argue.
Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, continued to argue that a “complete victory” over Hamas was necessary. For the most part, the United States continues to stand by Israel, albeit at a slightly greater distance, as government officials have become increasingly critical of Israel's military operations in Gaza. Biden himself recently described Israel's behavior as “excessive” and the bombing as “indiscriminate.”
The United States on Tuesday again vetoed a draft UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
Instead, the US began circulating its own resolution calling for a “temporary ceasefire.” This was the first time the US used the word “ceasefire” at the United Nations. But it came a few days after Biden himself began using it, a notable shift given the meaning of the term.
Supporting Algeria's proposed U.N. resolution Tuesday during ongoing hostage-taking talks would have jeopardized the ceasefire talks, the White House said.
“I think the American people and I think most people around the world would like to see these hostages home with their families,” White House spokesman John Kirby said Tuesday. “And if we just voted and approved this resolution, the chances of that happening would be significantly reduced.”
This story has been updated with additional details.
CNN's Katie Bo Lillis contributed reporting.