A Beriev A-50.
Wikimedia Commons
We don't know exactly how Ukrainian forces shot down one of the Russian Air Force's eight remaining Beriev A-50M/U radar early warning aircraft on Friday. But we know why.
Canadian open source intelligence researcher Steffan Watkins might have put it most succinctly. The Russians would be “blinded and prevented from individually monitoring Ukrainian airspace.”
The Russian Air Force began Russia's broader war against Ukraine with nine active A-50sM/Us – four-engine Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft with radar domes on their fuselages and stations for up to 15 crew members and battle commanders.
The A-50, like the US Air Force's E-3, flies behind the front line to scan the horizon for enemy aircraft and missiles. The Russian A-50s hover high above the ground cover and are able to reposition themselves if necessary. They have helped Russian commanders keep an eye on the Ukrainian air force — and detect incoming Ukrainian missiles and drones minutes in advance.
Ukraine's ongoing campaign of heavy attacks on Russian logistics and warships in occupied Crimea has underscored the importance of the A-50. After Ukrainian drones and missiles disabled several ground-based radars in Crimea late last year, the Russian Air Force reportedly moved its A-50s to fill the gaps.
The Russian Air Force has not been particularly successful in intercepting Ukrainian cruise missiles. To understand this, one only has to count how many Russian warships the Ukrainians have blown up in the last few months alone.
However, much of the success the Russians have had in protecting their forces stationed in Crimea is due to the A-50's flexible radar coverage. As the Ukrainians deployed more and more Russian radars on the ground in Crimea, the Russian commander compensated by moving the A-50 ever closer to the Southern Front.
It was this increasing desperation that on January 14 exposed an A-50 and its accompanying Il-22 radio relay aircraft to a Ukrainian missile battery that was probably firing US-made Patriot PAC-2 missiles. The duo was perhaps 60 miles south of the front line, flying in a tight circle over the Sea of Azov, when Ukrainian missiles hit both planes.
The Il-22 limped back to base with extensive damage and casualties. The A-50 crashed into the sea in flames. All 15 people on board died, including several high-ranking officers.
After the shootdown in January, the Russian Air Force made some efforts to protect the surviving A-50s by keeping them further away from the front lines. “Russian forces are increasingly deploying A-50 aircraft closer to the Russian border and towards Belarus,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reported earlier this month.
Closer, but not close enough. Yesterday, another A-50 exploded over the Krasnodar region of Russia, east of the Sea of Azov, killing all ten crew members and combat commanders.
The A-50 was reportedly 120 miles from the front line at the time of its destruction. That's 30 miles further than a Patriot typically travels, prompting speculation – and some unconfirmed reports – that the Ukrainian air force has begun firing old Cold War-era S-200 missiles as part of the surface-to-air role, which have a range of up to 160 miles.
In any case, the Russians only have perhaps seven surviving A-50M/Us with digital systems and a single A-100 next-generation early warning aircraft. There are other A-50s from the 1980s with purely mechanical systems in storage, but it is unclear whether these can fly safely, let alone whether they are combat capable.
The problem for the Kremlin is that it needs three early warning orbits to cover the entire 600-mile front line in Ukraine: one each in the south, east and north. At least nine A-50s are required for three orbits: one aircraft is on station, another is returning to base, and a third is in maintenance.
In fact, the Russian Air Force would need additional jets to support crew training and provide a float for regular depot maintenance.
All in all, by shooting down two A-50s – and damaging one of them in a drone strike in Belarus last year – the Ukrainians essentially took out an entire A-50 orbit and forced the Kremlin to decide in which region the The front is no longer covered by airborne radar.
It is a difficult decision as Ukrainian missiles and drones carry out heavy attacks in every region. And don't count on the Kremlin getting around this impossible decision by adding new A-50s to the fleet.
Consider that the Russian Air Force has been trying for years to complete the development and testing of a single next-generation A-100. Foreign sanctions have deprived the Air Force of some of the electronic components that the A-100's systems require.
For fans of a free Ukraine, the exciting question is what the Ukrainians will do if the Kremlin reallocates its remaining A-50s, inevitably leaving a gap in air radar coverage. Will they fire more drones and cruise missiles into the gap, targeting ships, command posts, logistics hubs and even weapons factories and oil facilities?
Almost certainly yes.
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