Published on: 18.06.2022 – 17:04
This Saturday, June 18th, the International Economic Forum ends in Saint Petersburg, Russia. When Western countries boycotted this meeting because of the war in Ukraine, India was present. New Delhi is showing its willingness not to let Western sanctions hamper the development of its trade relations with Moscow.
With our correspondent in Bangalore, Como Bastin
It is no coincidence that the Minister of Health is representing India in Saint Petersburg. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, New Delhi has increased the share of Russian oil in its hydrocarbon supply from 1% to 18%.
For Biswajit Dar, a specialist in world trade at JNU University in New Delhi, this forum is an opportunity for India to establish itself in the Russian market in return.
“Due to the sanctions, the Russian market is suffering from bottlenecks,” he explains. India has a very diverse manufacturing sector. In particular, it could deliver medicines, but also electronic devices to Russia. »
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To circumvent the sanctions-related banking hurdles, Moscow and New Delhi are discussing a new ruble-to-rupee payment mechanism.
“India’s trade balance with Russia is very negative,” Biswajit Dar recalled. But this could be offset by Russian investments in rupees in India,” he adds.
PS Raghavan, former ambassador to Russia and national security adviser, justifies India’s diplomatic stance: “If even India joins NATO and Western sanctions, we will push Russia into the arms of China. However, such a hostile Russia-China axis would not benefit anyone! »
While India also faces significant inflation, few voices in the political class oppose this commercial rapprochement with Russia.
Divergences in the assessment of the Russian economic situation
Under Western economic sanctions, the Kremlin continues to claim that Russia is resisting, unlike Europe and the United States, which would suffer more from their own retaliation.
These remarks provoked strong reactions at the St. Petersburg forum, where several officials expressed their disagreements over Russia’s economic policies since the invasion of Ukraine.
The Governor of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, calls for a structural “perestroika”, i.e. a reconstruction of the economy. It paints a much bleaker picture of the current situation than that of Vladimir Putin’s entourage.
The head of the central bank points to inflation, with prices rising by almost 18%. She is also concerned about the fall in GDP, which she forecasts at -10% over a year, in contrast to the Kremlin, which announces a fall of just 5%.
Finally, Elvira Nabioullina regrets that the Russian economy is too dependent on oil and gas, a sector that has been very exposed since the conflict in Ukraine.
business department,
Patricia Lecompte