Political decision?
Russia expert Wassili Astrow of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Comparisons (WIIW) considers Gazprom’s reasoning “not very credible”:
Eastern European expert Alexander Dubowy agrees: “Russia has been using energy as a weapon for many years. Therefore, we can confidently assume that this is a politically motivated step.”
According to Dubowy, the Russian government wants to use the supply cut to drive up gas prices in order to generate higher short-term revenues through other markets, especially in Asia. In the medium term, the Kremlin’s aim is “to cause a stir in Europe with high prices,” says Dubowy. Because a less united Europe would also be less likely to issue new sanctions packages.
In the long term, however, reduced supply volumes could also have dramatic consequences for Russia, Asrow believes: “They’re seeing the branch they’re sitting on.” before looking around This would seriously affect the Russian economy, which is heavily dependent on energy exports. According to Asrow, however, he is no longer sure “whether these decisions are still being made rationally in Russia.”