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What the hell are patriots doing?
Since the NFL began free agency last week, frustration over the Pats’ inactivity has grown by the day, fueled by memories of last year’s record spending spree and the AFC’s arms race. As competitors stockpile guns, it looks like the Pats are loading up used Nerf guns.
Here’s what’s really going on at Foxborough, according to sources: Bill Belichick is negotiating directly with the team’s top targets. Senior Consultant Eliot Wolf, an NFL front office veteran with over 20 years of experience, handles the phones of other outside free agents. New HR director Matt Gros took over some of the workload during the Pro Day tour, having already secured several re-signings.
As linebacker coach Jarod Mayo said last month, the Pats are trying to “get faster, more explosive, and get more playmakers on the field.” That is, on their terms.
According to one agent, who spoke on condition of anonymity, the Patriots raised the price significantly for an elite offensive client who had signed a similar contract elsewhere but was not attracted by the money. This account demonstrates a willingness to spend cash and limited space, even if it is at odds with several other negotiations in which the Pats have refused to pay for mid-level free agents.
“They have a cheap problem,” another player’s agent said.
Without a big surge in free agents defining the Patriots’ offseason, misguided explanations for their approach filled a void in public discourse. Let’s look at two big ones.
The Pats weren’t limited by their limited ceiling space, but the NFL salary cap isn’t “crap” either. Phrases like “the cap is shit” can be used for funny talk on the radio, but are completely useless when you’re trying to understand the inner workings of a league’s business.
The truth is, every NFL team hires salary cap experts and sticks to it every year. If the cap didn’t matter, the Packers wouldn’t have pushed Davante Adams away during 12 months of contract negotiations and then traded him to Las Vegas. If Robert Craft had been free from the salary cap all these years, Tom Brady, his “fifth son”, would most likely still be a patriot, pay unholy hoards of money and be surrounded by well-deserved weapons.
It’s also true that teams can create space at almost any time, often resetting current marginal spending on their books for future years through contract restructuring. But the bill always, always comes. The Saints recently received over $30 million in space through restructuring, expecting they could land Deshawn Watson. Instead, they are deprived of Watson and have already exceeded the limit by $14 million for the next year.
So far, the Patriots have been reluctant to restructure contracts with two or more years left, according to sources.
None of this is an excuse or praise for their inaction. This should set the right foundation for how free agency works. Those are the rules.
And that, for better or worse, is what the Patriots are doing.
Patriots free agent tracking and estimates: Pats creates $1.25 million in cap, Gunner Olszewski leaves for Pittsburgh
All salary cap information provided by Over The Cap.
1. Priority of internal free agents
It’s clear: Belichick believes in his players.
Veterans Devin McCourty, Matthew Slater and James White have re-signed, professional patriots who have shared the locker room since 2014. Each of them signed a team-friendly contract. Midfielder Ja’Whaun Bentley, another frontrunner, also returned to a two-year deal.
Patas paid the price for familiarity and trust. These are not only novice players, but also culture drivers and valuable signings. With just $10 million in caps by the start of the week, the Pats were chasing low-ceiling, high-floor deals to maintain their overall spot as a minor playoff team.
There are strong arguments in favor of continuity and retention of leadership. Despite a massive influx of new talent last year, the Patriots started 2-4, assimilating new faces, then stumbled at the finish line, losing four of their last five.
Later, the players admitted that they were unable to increase the level of intensity on the segment. No one in the dressing room understands what it takes to win better than three-time Super Bowl champions like McCourty, Slater and White. Now that they’re back in the building, the Pats are betting that their chances of another crash in 2022 are going down, even if their long playoff chances are down as well.
2. Stick to the basic principles
A year ago, the Patriots demonstrated their financial strength by making starting offers that free agents couldn’t refuse and other teams couldn’t match. It was out of character.
NFL Notes: Patriots Not an Attractive Destination for Free Agents in 2022
Aside from a few notable examples, including Stephon Gilmore and Adalius Thomas, the Patriots have a habit of sitting out the first wave of free will. If they are targeting top tier free agents, they will make an initial offer which, if denied, will stand in case that player’s market crashes.
If not, the player leaves.
Namely, the Patriots were never close to signing JC Jackson. They have since allowed another high-priced full-time free agent, forward Trent Brown, to determine his value on the open market and even visit Seattle before returning to them.
Even with the obvious gaps in the roster, the Pats stick to their long held beliefs about positional spending in free agency. They don’t pay big bucks for No. 1 wide receivers – not even Randy Moss or Brandin Cooks – preferring to spread the money across positions. Entering the final off-season, their average league ranking for wide receiver spending in a single season was 14th in the last eight years.
The same applies to linebackers, where they finished in 12th place, and cornerback, who was in 17th place. New inside linebacker Mac Wilson arrived with a $2.54 million annual non-guaranteed base salary, while corner free agent Terrence Mitchell signed a one-year, $1.75 million contract.
How will the Patriots use former Saints RB/WR Ty Montgomery?
3. Protect future flexibility
Last offseason, the Patriots structured several of their free-agent contracts in such a way that 2021 would have a minimum number of hits and more in 2022. This is what crushes their ceiling.
But 2023? It’s a different story.
The Patriots have the fifth-highest projected ceiling for 2023 at $102.5 million. They also plan to carry zero dead money.
So far, none of their free agent contracts have violated this flexibility. They have entered into either one-year or two-year deals where they can cut the bait without any major penalties. The only exception is McCourty’s contract, which runs for four invalid years and could inflict $9.7 million in damages if it expires next spring.
This is all intentional. The 2021 Patriots free agent class was assembled knowing that Matthew Judon, Hunter Henry, Jonna Smith, Nelson Agolor, Jalen Mills and more would stay for two-plus years. Belichick built this team to be free by 2023, when the size cap will rise due to an influx of new revenue from the league’s huge TV contracts and gambling money.
All signs point to another devastation coming next spring. But for now, it’s sit still. Return to normal business.