Lines of communication between senior US Defense Department officials and their Russian counterparts have been blacked out since Russia launched its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine last month, putting the world’s two nuclear superpowers at risk of mischaracterizing each other’s troop movements and exercises with potentially catastrophic consequences.
According to the Washington Post, both General Mark Milley – the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff – and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin have repeatedly attempted to arrange talks with their Moscow counterparts, General Valery Gerasimov and Defense Secretary Sergei Shoigu.
In a statement, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said none of the Russian officials accepted the invitations and instead “so far have declined to get involved.”
Although Washington and Moscow have established several official lines of communication for senior officials, including the famous “hot line” that has been maintained since shortly after the Cuban Missile Crisis and a separate “warm line” connecting the US State Department to the Russian State Department, alongside so-called “Deconfliction channels” designed to prevent US and Russian forces from exchanging fire in crowded theaters of operations, contact between top officials is deemed important to prevent a minor misunderstanding or mistake from escalating into a full-blown conflagration, especially during times of high tension.
In the chaotic days following the 2020 election, General Milley said he had been in regular contact with his Chinese counterpart to reassure Beijing that then-President Donald Trump would not, in a fit of anger, order a strike against China after his defeat Joe Biden.
James Stavridis, a retired US Navy admiral who served as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander from 2009 to 2013, told the Post that a lack of contacts between senior defense officials creates “a high risk of escalation” as the actions of combatants in the Russia-Ukraine conflict “can be misunderstood”.
“We must avoid a scenario where NATO and Russia sleepwalk to war because senior leaders can’t pick up the phone and explain to each other what’s happening,” he said.
A lack of communication between Russian and NATO leaders in times of tension could potentially lead to a nuclear war breaking out if one side misreads the other’s actions.
In November 1983, an annual NATO exercise called “Able Archer” led to Soviet officials putting their nuclear forces on high alert, believing the exercises were being used to cover up preparations for a NATO first strike.
Recently declassified documents released by the US State Department showed that the Soviet Union responded to the exercise by “conducting military and intelligence activities previously only observed during actual crises.”
US and British intelligence of the period showed that the Soviets had loaded ready-to-drop nuclear munitions onto combat-ready aircraft.
In an “End of Tour Report” prepared for US Air Force officials, Lt. Gen. Leonard Perroots – the Deputy Chief of Staff of US Air Force Intelligence during the 1983 exercise, wrote that during that exercise Soviet forces focused on the ” immediate use of nuclear weapons” had prepared the exercise, noting that KGB officials had told Soviet authorities that they believed the West was planning a surprise attack and called the “war scare” a “potentially catastrophic situation that never happened.” really came into play”.