A senior Ukrainian official has accused Russia of deliberately escalating its deadly attacks on civilian targets following recent rocket attacks, including this week’s attack on the crowded center of Vinnytsia that killed 23 people, including three children.
Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security Council, told the Guardian that monitoring of Russian attacks suggests there has been an increased emphasis on terrorizing Ukrainian civilians in recent weeks.
“We have a system to monitor and track all airstrikes and other attacks in our country and what we’ve noticed lately is a tendency to destroy more and more civilian targets. They have decided to terrorize the civilian population. These are not my feelings, but what our surveillance is telling us.”
Ukraine map Friday 15th July
While Russia has been accused of targeting civilians during its invasion of Ukraine, rocket attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure appear to have increasingly become a tactic in their own right over the past month with a string of deadly attacks.
At the end of June, 18 people were killed and 59 injured in an attack on a shopping center in Kremenchuk, a small town on the Dnieper. On July 1, a block of flats and a beach hotel in Serhiivka, 50 km south of Odessa, was hit, killing 21 people and injuring 35.
On July 9, two apartment buildings in Khasiv Yar near the frontline in Donetsk Oblast were hit: 48 people are said to have been killed, making it one of the deadliest single attacks in the entire five-month war. Vinnytsia, a central city far from the front lines, was hit on Thursday, five days later.
Danilov indicated that some attacks – including during a visit by UN Secretary-General António Guterres to Kyiv – were aimed at conveying a message of defiance. The attack in Vinnytsia on Thursday came as European ministers met in The Hague to discuss how to hold Russia accountable for the atrocities committed during its invasion of Ukraine.
“We have an enemy who breaks all rules of war and rejects international law, so we cannot expect better behavior,” Danilov said. “What surprises me is the fact that a country that rejects international law is allowed to participate in international institutions to claim its ‘rights’.”
A multiple rocket attack on Kyiv’s university district on June 26, just before the start of the G7 summit – and after the conclusion of an EU summit – was interpreted as an attempt to intimidate Ukrainians and show that Russia does not fear the West. It was the first time the capital had been hit in three weeks.
dr Sidharth Kaushal, an analyst at the Rusi think tank, said that Russia has used long-range missiles that can hit anywhere in Ukraine for two purposes: “either to cut off the flow of supplies at the front lines or to terrorize civilians.” Recent attacks, he added, “suggest an emphasis on the latter function, as their objectives were clearly non-military in nature.”
Some of the rockets used are from the Soviet era – and were used in ways not envisaged by their original design. Kaushal said that Russia used an AS-4 “kitchen” anti-ship missile at Kremenchuk, which was first deployed in the 1960s. Amnesty International said the same munitions were used in the twin rocket attack in Serhiivka – suggesting, Kaushal added, “the goal is terror, not precision”.
Ukraine’s missile defense systems are limited and early warning capabilities are lost in the early stages of the war. Its system of air raid warnings is largely ineffective, and sirens in cities outside of conflict zones are rarely followed. To improve the situation, Kyiv has tried to get defense systems from the West – so far only received limited supplies.
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In early July, the US promised to deliver two US-Norwegian Nasams air defense systems, operating at a range of about 20 miles and capable of protecting Kyiv or any other large population center. But Russia’s recent wave of missile attacks have focused on secondary, or tertiary, centers.
Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst and director of Rochan Consulting, said he believes the escalating Russian attacks are linked to Ukraine’s deployment of longer-range rocket artillery systems, primarily the newly arrived Himars truck battery from the US.
“The more successful the Ukrainians will be with their use of Himars, the more likely the Russians are to attack civilians,” Muzyka said, arguing that Moscow’s tactic was in fact a crude deterrent aimed at thwarting Kiev’s desire to counterattack and Stand out against the invaders to weaken them.
Danilov rejected this interpretation. “You cannot link the arrival of Himars to these strikes. Even if we didn’t have these systems, they would still terrorize and kill civilians, so the connection risks being a Russian narrative.”
A security alert headlined Missile Threat Awareness released overnight Thursday advised Americans again to leave Ukraine. It added: “Avoid large gatherings and organized events as they can serve as Russian military targets anywhere in Ukraine, including its western regions.”
The latest attacks have coincided with intercepted messages and social media posts by Russian soldiers and pro-Russian bloggers explicitly celebrating the attacks on Ukrainian civilians.
On Friday, Russia acknowledged that it had attacked central Vinnytsia and claimed the goal was a meeting of Ukrainian officials and Western arms dealers, but without providing any evidence. Earlier, pro-Kremlin sources denied hitting Vinnytsia and claimed another city was hit.