We can’t say Treasury Secretary Eric Girard has his eye on the compass!
Presenting his 2021-2022 budget in March 2021, Minister Girard planned to end this fiscal year with a $9.2 billion deficit before transferring money to the Generations Fund.
Results ? After all, it ended fiscal 2021-2022 in — you know — a budget surplus of $3.32 billion. Which leaves a “monstrous” budget forecast gap of $12.5 billion!
How come?
In terms of revenue, the Legault government has added $16.8 billion in revenue over 2021-2022 compared to Minister Girard’s original projections. That is 13.7% more than expected. Let’s agree that this is a “generous” difference in favor of the Legault government.
This revenue surplus includes $13.3 billion in additional revenue from tax revenues (taxes, tariffs, fees, permits, etc.), $1.27 billion in additional revenue from state-owned companies (Hydro-Quebec, Loto -Quebec, Investissement Quebec, etc.) and an additional federal transfer amount of US$2.24 billion.
On the government spending side, there is overspending (portfolios, anti-COVID-19 measures) of around $4.27 billion compared to budget forecasts.
Minister Eric Girard attributed the improvement in Quebec’s fiscal position to the province’s strong economic recovery.
THE FLOP OF 2020-2021
It is not the first time that Minister Girard has failed in his budget forecasts. I remind you that his budget for 2020-2021 had become almost obsolete … just days after it was presented.
Presenting his budget on March 10, 2020, Girard ignored the pandemic wreaking havoc in Quebec. It was expected to end the fiscal year with a budget surplus of $2.7 billion (before transferring monies to the Generations Fund).
He and the Treasury monks really needed to be disconnected from reality. Barely three days later, François Legault triggered the public health emergency and paralyzed several sectors of the economy.
Forced to repeat his lesson, Minister Girard presented a budget update three months later in which he intended to end the 2020-2021 fiscal year with a spectacular $12.4 billion deficit this time.
Finally, it ended the 2020-2021 fiscal year with a deficit of $4.2 billion, or $8.2 billion less than its revised forecast!
THE CURRENT YEAR…
As part of the 2022-2023 budget presented last March, the Legault government treasurer forecast a deficit of around $3 billion.
It is certain that Minister Girard has once again underestimated his revenue forecasts. He has forecast total revenue of $138.5 billion for the 2022-2023 fiscal year, or almost $1 billion less than the revenue generated in 2021-2022!
With the upcoming election campaign in full swing, the pre-election report on Quebec’s public finances, due out in mid-August, can’t wait.
