Pressure is mounting on the European Union to halt Russian gas supplies as individual countries begin to turn off the taps.
The Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia this weekend became the first region in Europe to completely abandon Russian gas supplies, and they are urging other nations on the continent to do the same.
Lithuania, the first individual EU country to make the move, said on Saturday that the country was acting “in response to Russia’s energy blackmail in Europe,” according to a press release from the country’s energy ministry.
But whether that will cause other countries in Europe to phase out of Russia’s gas is a big question.
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said on Sunday Russia’s crimes could not go unanswered but argued on Monday that a sweeping embargo would hurt Germany more than Russia.
“We have to plan tough sanctions, but gas cannot be replaced in the short term,” Lindner told reporters ahead of a meeting with the Eurogroup, the informal body of EU finance ministers.
“We would do more harm to ourselves than to them,” Lindner said.
Germany is in a particularly difficult position, having imported about 55 percent of its gas from Russia last year. The EU as a whole gets about 40 percent of its gas from Russia.
The Baltic States import comparatively significantly less gas from Russia. According to Bloomberg, Lithuania got about 26 percent of its gas directly from Russia last year. The country will now rely on imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US and Norway, Bloomberg reported, citing the country’s energy minister.
Morgan Bazilian, a professor of public policy at the Colorado School of Mines, told The Hill that eight years ago, Lithuania developed a floating storage and regasification unit at the country’s LNG terminal in Klaipėda, allowing the country to import gas from others countries to include.
“They were able to make the statements today because they had planned eight years ago,” he said. “And Latvia and Estonia are somehow coming along.”
While Lithuania may not be an example of how nations can “get rid of Russian gas overnight,” the country is “a very good example of how to plan for your energy security and not just leave it to market forces,” according to Brenda Shaffer, an international energy expert Specialist at the Naval Postgraduate School, The Hill said.
Lithuania’s gas transmission system has been running without Russian gas imports since April 1, with no Russian gas flowing through the Lithuanian-Belarusian interconnector, according to the country’s Energy Ministry.
“From this month – no more Russian gas in Lithuania,” said Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda tweeted on Saturday.
Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė agreed on Sunday via Twitter that “From now on, Lithuania will not consume a cubic meter [centimeter] of toxic Russian gas.”
Meanwhile, Uldis Bariss, CEO of Latvia’s Conexus Baltic Grid, told Latvian radio this weekend that “since April 1, Russian natural gas has stopped flowing to Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.”
The Baltic States are much smaller economies than other nations in Europe that import Russian gas, and as a result the moves, while important, will have less of an impact on Russia than if larger nations turned off the tap.
Bazilian noted that while the shift “offers the right visuals”, it is “a relatively small piece of the European puzzle”.
“It’s very small compared to, for example, Germany or Italy or other countries that rely on natural gas,” said Bazilian.
In the short to medium term, a major European embargo on Russian energy is unlikely given the dependence of nations like Germany on Russian gas, Shaffer said.
Germany and other large EU members also have much larger industrial sectors dependent on Russian gas. This has given Russia leverage over Germany, which backed a controversial new pipeline from Russia prior to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
“For a country like Germany, which is based on heavy industry — like steel and cars and other equipment — the gas price issue has very different economic implications than for a country like Lithuania, which is mostly based on light industry,” Shaffer said.
Shaffer also pointed to the tension between Europe’s climate goals and the current need to meet traditional energy needs through more pipeline projects and LNG infrastructure.
“There’s a bit of a trade-off between Europe’s climate goals and building new infrastructure that would ensure their energy security,” Shaffer said. “In a weird way, the climate camp would almost favor the status quo.”
While the Baltic states’ decision to stop importing Russian gas is unlikely to be carried over to the entire EU, Bazilian called the weekend’s events “a symbol that the rest of Europe is really serious about this” and that the continent ” it will try to diversify away from Russia.”
One way to do this will be through US LNG shipments. President Biden recently announced that the US would ship an additional 15 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe this year.
The EU has also said it will chart a path to phasing out Russian energy imports by 2027, and Bazilian expressed confidence that the US “will be part of that solution.”
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Despite its small size, the Baltic region is “another market that will import LNG,” according to Shaffer. And while this won’t come solely from American sources, higher market demand for LNG generally means higher demand for American LNG, she explained.
Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius, is also home to the NATO Center of Excellence on Energy Security, reflecting how the country views energy “as a really important national security issue,” Shaffer added.
“You’re kind of the main voice within NATO on these issues, so I think it’s going to have some impact on NATO thinking,” she said.
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