Ukraine’s relentless efforts to push back Russian troops in the country’s occupied southern territories are so effective that, according to American analysts, they are now “appreciably affecting Russian logistical and administrative capabilities.”
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US defense and foreign policy think tank, released a lengthy report Monday detailing military operations between the two sides. It is the latest in a series of analytical reports since Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February, sparking a bitter and bloody war.
The report, which focused on Kherson province, outlined analysts’ opinion that a war of attrition – in which one side seeks to simply “wear down” its enemy – is underway and the Russians are worst off as a result.
Ukraine’s strategy and reported achievements were set out in the opening remarks of the document.
Ukrainian soldiers are pictured in Soledar in eastern Ukraine in February 2022. Kiev’s relentless efforts to push back Russian troops in occupied southern Ukraine are so effective that, according to American analysts, they are “appreciably affecting Russian logistical and administrative capabilities.” Getty Images
“The Ukrainian counter-offensive is noticeably worsening Russian logistics and administrative capacities in occupied southern Ukraine,” she began.
“As ISW previously reported, Ukrainian officials have specifically confirmed that Ukrainian forces are attempting to wear down Russian logistics capabilities in the south through precision strikes on concentrations of manpower and equipment, command centers and logistics hubs.
“The Ukrainian armed forces intend to slowly dismantle Russia’s tactical and operational capabilities in Kherson Oblast, and this is likely to have a significant impact on the administrative and bureaucratic capabilities of occupation officials.”
The report went on to provide an example which it took as evidence of the success of Ukraine’s tactics, claiming that the Russian military chief in charge of the occupation was forced to pause his plans for a referendum to try and achieve Russia’s goal of annexation to ratify.
ISW analysts wrote: “The head of the occupation regime in the Kherson region, Kirill Stremousov, told Russian media outlet TASS that his government suspended plans for the referendum on the annexation of the Kherson region due to ‘security’ concerns. The Ukrainian Resistance Center similarly reported that the Russian occupation authorities are abandoning plebiscite plans because of the ongoing counter-offensive.
“Shortly after TASS published his comment, Stremousov posted on Telegram and denied that he had called for a pause because his government had never set an official date for the referendum on the impact of the counter-offensive.”
The report sums it up, adding: “The Ukrainian armed forces intend to slowly dismantle Russian capabilities at the tactical and operational levels in Kherson Oblast, and this is likely to have a significant impact on the administrative and bureaucratic capabilities of occupation officials.
The American analysis indicated that Putin’s claims that forces from the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the Lugansk People’s Republic (LNR) fought better than professional Russian soldiers were probably aimed at boosting morale in those ranks and ‘enhancing recruitment should promote [in the DNR and LNR]… [because] Russian armed forces have increasingly relied on DNR and LNR personnel as core forces.'”
The ISW’s hard-hitting report, which appears to expose Russia’s failings, comes as Ukrainian military officials claimed the death toll in Moscow surpassed 50,000 on Tuesday.
The New York Times also reported, citing recently declassified intelligence information, that Russia has resorted to buying artillery shells and missiles from rogue state North Korea as Western sanctions cut it off from global supply chains.
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Foreign Ministry and Ukraine’s Defense Ministry for comment.