The conference season continues and there is a lot of action on this beautiful Thursday night.
We are blessed with seven conference tournaments in play today, ranging from the Sun Belt, starting early in the day to the WCC, ending late at night.
Our staff is focused on the night shift. They have displayed the best bet for each active tournament, plus a bonus bet from our senior college basketball writer, Stucky.
Don’t forget to come back tomorrow when the Southern Conference joins the action and the Great South returns.
Best bets on the tournament for conferences on Thursday, March 3
The team logos in the table below represent each of the games our basketball staff targets in college from today’s list of games. Click on the team logo for one of the matches below to go to a specific bet discussed in this article.
ULM v. State of Arkansas
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from Kyle Remillard
UL Monroe enters the Sun Belt tournament after losing five consecutive games. Much of this is due to the lack of protection from the Warhawks, which is a constant problem throughout the season.
The group ranks 295th in the country in terms of defense effectiveness and has conceded 75 points per game. Opponents have received open eyes all over the floor, hitting 36% of the territory with 3 points (299th) and 52% with 2 points from the flight (279th).
In the rare cases of omissions, Warhawks allow offensive rebounds in 33% of the time, which ranks 338th nationwide.
Now they have the task to try to slow down the player of the year in Sun Belt and the defender of the year in Norchad Omier.
Omier is a monster that produces in every category. He led the conference, hitting 65% of the field and grabbing 12 fights per race. The striker with 6 feet and 7 points gives 17 points in addition to 2.1 blocks and 1.6 stolen thefts per game.
The Red Wolves have a transfer from Arkansas, Desi Sils, who leads the show as a point guard. Sills has an average of 13 points per game and has extensive experience in the game.
One or two strikes by Arkansas State will reveal UL Monroe’s weak defense on the road to a comfortable victory.
Choice: Arkansas -5.5 (Play -6.5)
Army against Lehai
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from Shane McNickle
From the four quarterfinals of the Patriotic League, the match between the 4-placed Mountain Hawks and the 5-placed Black Knights feels like the right goal.
These teams split their previous matches, each winning easily at home.
However, the victory of the army came only on January 7, when the cadets played some of their best basketball of the season. Since then, the wheels have fallen at West Point. The Army lost its first six games in February, ruining a once promising season.
Lehigh is also prepared to stop the army’s offensive. Mountain hawks lead the whole nation with the lowest allowed percentage of 3 points.
Lehigh forces opponents to attack inside the arc, where the defense is ready and waiting. Lehai’s 2-point percentage was third in the Patriotic League and top 70 in the nation.
The army is looking to attack the interior, leading the Patriotic League by 2 points per game. As long as Lehai’s defense remains deliberate and does not reward the army with transitions to the line of foul, the mountain hawks must stifle the Black Knights’ result.
Lehigh, on the other hand, is one of the best shooting teams in the Patriotic League. If they can stay hot in their home gym, the Mountain Hawks should win here and cover the minimum spread.
Choice: Lehigh -1
Indiana vs. Illinois
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from Tanner McGrath
Indiana should not have opened at +1.5. This line should be closer to +3.
Nevertheless, I can’t help but support Sycamores in this first round battle.
I’m not a big fan of Illinois. The Red Birds led the ATS league this season with 18-11, but are not strong in any area except shooting with 3 points (36.8%, third in MVC) and defense with 3 points (33.7%, second in MVC).
It feels like the Red Birds are begging for regression.
Meanwhile, you have an Indiana team from the state in a low buying position and coming out after a five-game losing streak. It begs for regression. ShotQuality predicts that Sycamores should be 14-16 based on the quality of the shots taken and allowed, as opposed to their actual record of 11-19.
A perfect example of this: Indiana State shoots just 8-for-29 out of 3 with a 20-point loss to Illinois to end the regular season.
To summarize: We get Indiana at a low point of purchase and a place for revenge – while this is due to a positive regression – against Illinois, which is due to some negative regression.
I think Indiana is moving forward. I’m ready to play Sycamores to select them if necessary.
Choice: Indiana +1.5 (Play to PK)
Detroit v. North Kentucky
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from Jim Root
When it comes to single-elimination basketball, it’s quite profitable to have the best player on the floor.
In this game, there is no doubt who it is. Detroit’s Antoine Davis has amassed nearly 2,700 points in his famous college career, and the skinny sniper has counted 171 of them against North Kentucky.
Detroit also brought back Madut Akek, their second best player, after an injury in the first round of this tournament. He is vital as a double threat striker and his ability to turn the court will be especially useful against the Scandinavian area.
In defense, the Titans’ biggest weakness is on the edge. This season, however, the NKU has become a heavier attack on the perimeter. You can’t take advantage of this vulnerable interior.
Few teams in the country can overtake Davis and Detroit: the Titans are ranked third nationally in terms of percentage points scored beyond the rainbow.
Detroit beat the Norwegians by six and eight points in two games this season. This takes into account all the losses of the NKU since mid-January. With Davis, Akek, and other Detroit gunners firing from deep, I’m expecting a third.
Choice: Detroit +4 (Play to +3)
Detroit v. North Kentucky
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from Stucky
I agree with Jim about the Titans.
I think they remain undervalued in the market because of their advanced performance, which has been reduced by a horrific start to the season and injuries throughout the 2021-22 campaign.
Well, now they have Noah Waterman back in full force. As a 5-man, who knocks down 40 percent of his 3, he’s crucial to Detroit’s attack to provide the necessary distance for Antoine Davis, who will be the best player on the court.
Having another player who can shoot against the NKU zone is also crucial. Speaking of Davis, he is able to score 30 or more every night and looked healthy in the last game after dealing with a serious injury in recent weeks.
Detroit also got Madut Akek back in the last game and he is perhaps the second best player on the team. The Titans swept the regular season series, even playing without Waterman in one game and Akek in the other.
I think they have a very good chance to finish the cleanup and will be happy to take the points here.
Choice: Detroit +4
Coast of the Gulf of Florida opposite Bellarmine
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from cask.
As I mentioned in my review of the ASUN Tournament, no team is hotter in the tournament than the FGCU.
Last month, the Eagles were 7-1 and beat teams by an average of 9.8 points per game. Thursday night will be the Eagles’ first game at Freedom Hall, after the previous three took place at Fort Myers.
However, Bellarmine also won its previous three.
No defense was great, but Bellarmine ranked 314th in adjusted performance, according to KenPom. Not to mention that the Knights are 0-5 against the spread in their last five home games.
FGCU was also much better on the road than at home. I think the Eagles not only cover the spread, but have a very good chance of winning this game.
I will support Eagles at +2 or better and I will make a small bet on the money line as well.
Choice: Florida Gulf Coast +3.5 (Play to +2)
Tennessee Tech vs. Morehead State
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from Matt Cox
The Sharks came out early today, looking for value in conference betting markets. In this one they clearly smelled blood.
Morehead opened as a 5.5-point favorite in most stores, but that price soon disappeared. The money quickly poured into the top of the Eagles, number 3 in this year’s OVC tournament, raising the number to a touchdown by 9 a.m. ET.
From this angle we bet on an outdated line. However, even at -7, there is enough value to get on the favorite.
For a start, they sit in a position of power. The strong regular season won Morhead goodbye in the first round, giving him a big advantage over Tennessee Tech, which will be next to each other. In fact, the Golden Eagles are playing their fourth game in seven days.
This will be a climb up for a thin TTU rotation, especially against Morehead’s stifling defense. There is reason for Morehead to take on Tennessee Tech in the regular season – the Eagles are just a longer, more athletic and more physical version of the Golden Eagles, ironically.
They say it’s hard to beat a team three times in a row. Well, the data completely debunks their anecdotes. Per Dr. Bob Tableteams are 52% against the distribution in the last 30 years compared to teams that have already won twice in the regular season
Select: Morehead State -7 or better
Pepperdine vs. San Diego
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from DJ James
This is the first round of the West Coast Conference Tournament, and two of the league’s most comprehensive teams, San Diego and Pepperdine, are coming together for a 7-on-10 game.
Pepperdine’s injuries are a little more severe than San Diego’s. Maxwell Lewis, the team’s third top scorer, is absent until the end of the year due to a wrist injury, while Jan Zidek, Keith Fisher III and Daryl Polk Jr. are in question. If one of these three is also out, the team has no chance of staying in this match.
However, it is not like the Torreros have proven to be a jaggernaut.
They hit Terrell Brown and Bryce Monroe, but Marcellus Earlington and Jace Townsend could commit the crime. They are the only players to score double-digit points for San Diego.
Given that Pepperdine’s defense is already the 260th most corrected defensive performance (according to KenPom), SD should take advantage.
The Torreros attack should thrive, as over 60.1% of their points this season come from a range of 2 points. This is exactly where Pepperdine fights in defense – Waves allow teams to shoot an average of 55% in 2s this season.
With the expectation that the Waves bench will take big minutes, it’s hard to imagine coverage here.
Take the Toreros to advance with the spread.