Russia’s invasion could destroy Ukraine’s sovereignty or Vladimir Putin’s regime. The outlines of a solution that leaves both intact are more blurred.
The big picture: Putin failed to impose a quick surrender from Kyiv. Now, even if he eventually manages to oust Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, he will almost certainly face a protracted, well-armed and motivated uprising – a bad outcome for Russia and a worse one for Ukraine.
- Yet Putin’s demands and behavior – condemning Zelensky’s administration as “Nazis” and insisting on the complete “demilitarization” of an invading country – are not those of a man willing to make a deal.
- Putin’s assessment will change only if he is put under enough pressure at home – due to casualties on the battlefield and economic hardships – that he believes continuing the war is more dangerous for him than ending it, says Richard Haas, president. of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Even in such a scenario, it is unclear what outcome Putin may be willing to take.
- Putin’s other main demand, Ukraine, to declare itself neutral and exclude future NATO membership, has not been in Kyiv for a long time. It is unclear whether the reality of the battlefield can change that.
- But after describing his mission in Ukraine as “denazification” (however absurd it may be) and speaking at length about Ukraine’s legitimate place in Russia’s orbit, Putin seems to have set the bar for success, at least in installing a loyalist. government.
- However, Putin has an advantage there. His control over the Russian media is such that he can believe he can sell a modest result – a new status for the eastern “republics” and a promise of NATO, perhaps – as a victory, despite the high cost.
On the one hand: Representative Adam Smith (D-Wash.) Is among them disputes that the United States must determine the circumstances under which the sanctions will be lifted in order to provide Putin with a diversion.
On the other hand: Radek Sikorski, Poland’s chairman of the European Parliament’s EU-US delegation to the European Parliament, told Axios that the goal of Western sanctions should now be regime change, calling Putin “a criminal who threatens us with nuclear war.”
In both ways, The West’s focus now should not be on diplomacy, Haas said. That should increase the cost to Putin.
Driving the news: In the second round of peace talks near the Ukraine-Belarus border on Thursday, Ukrainian and Russian delegations reached a preliminary agreement on organizing humanitarian corridors for fleeing civilians, but made no progress in ending the war.
- Zelensky then challenged Putin to meet with him one-on-one.
- “Not that I want to talk to Putin. I think I need to talk to Putin. The world needs to talk to Putin because there are no other ways to stop this war,” he said.
in the meantime, Putin held a 90-minute conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron, in which he not only refused to back down from his demands, but also promised to add more if Ukraine continues to fight.
- A French official offered reporters this ominous analysis: “Russia’s ambition is really to take control of the whole of Ukraine.”
Go deeper: The latest in the Russia-Ukraine crisis