“As long as there is significant progress and we are close to a possible deal, a number of very difficult issues remain unresolved,” the spokesman said this week when asked about progress in the negotiations.
Another administration official warned that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”. Iranian experts point out that although the difficulties at the negotiating table have diminished, there is always a chance that new problems will arise at the last minute.
US Special Envoy for Iran Rob Mali remains in Vienna, Austria, where Iran and the United States are participating in the latest round of indirect talks – mediated by China, Russia and European countries – to return to the 2015 agreement, known as the Joint the Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA), which places verifiable limits on Iran’s nuclear program designed to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Iran is increasingly moving away from its commitments to the agreement, and many believe it will be able to develop nuclear weapons quickly and pose a serious threat to security and stability in the Middle East if a breakthrough is not forthcoming soon.
Some administration officials say the war in Ukraine, which is affecting global energy prices, a major concern for the Biden administration in the interior, has added a sense of urgency to the deal, but other administration officials warn against linking the two crises.
The result could be critical for Biden
Still, the final fate of the deal – one of President Barack Obama’s landmark achievements in foreign policy, from which President Donald Trump retired in 2018 – could end up as one of the Biden administration’s most important foreign policy legacies, beyond end game of the Russian war in Ukraine.
A new deal could prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power – or, critics say, give Iran newfound power in global affairs at a dangerous time. The Biden administration believes that failing to save the deal would put Iran at risk of acquiring nuclear weapons, even in the face of crippling sanctions.
On Capitol Hill, Democratic lawmakers who backed Iran’s initial nuclear deal say it is clear there are still issues that need to be resolved. They say they still hope the negotiators can get there – but they are not sure if that will happen.
“There seems to have been a little roller coaster ride in the last 10 days. My impression is that there are still obstacles,” said Sen. Chris Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut. “Given the briefings we have received on the state of Iran’s nuclear program, it would be insane for the United States not to return to the deal – if the deal is to be reached.”
Senator Ben Cardin, a Democrat from Maryland, said: “I think there are still obstacles. So I don’t think it’s immediate, but I think progress has been made. I have expressed serious concerns. ”
“You can’t put it back together again, as it was in 2015,” he added. “So it’s hard to figure out how to modernize a deal comparable to where it was before.”
Sen. Chris Koons, a Democrat from Delaware, said he was unsure how some of the biggest disputes – the release of hostages from Iran, the lifting of US sanctions – could be reconciled.
“I’m amazed you got this far,” Koons said. “But look, if they decide that their survival depends on easing the sanctions, we have to push hard for a difficult deal.”
Impact of rising energy prices
Some experts believe that rising energy prices after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine could affect negotiations.
About one million barrels of Iranian oil are withdrawn from the world market every day, according to Henry Rome, who reflects Middle Eastern policy as deputy head of research at the Eurasia Group. He said that if the deal is negotiated, Iran will be able to increase production for several months to bring most of those barrels back online, in addition to the rapid release of a significant amount of oil currently in stock.
“I think the overall crisis in Ukraine is putting a lot of pressure on Western governments to make a deal sooner, although it probably also encourages Iran to ask for more,” Rome said. “If there is a deal, it will provide some relief in the extremely volatile energy market.
Earlier this week, the United States and its allies agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil from their reserves.
“Russia’s destabilizing actions have made the world a more dangerous place. We cannot and will not allow Iran to worsen the situation by acquiring nuclear weapons,” said a State Department spokesman when asked about any connection between the Vienna talks. and Ukraine crisis.
Russia’s envoy to Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, said on Thursday that talks were nearing completion.
“A very useful meeting tonight with the chief Iranian negotiator, Dr. Ali Bagheri Kani. “We discussed what more needs to be done to finalize #ViennaTalks on #JCPOA,” he tweeted. On Wednesday, he said talks were “almost over”.
Many Iranian experts are closely following IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi’s planned visit to Tehran for meetings with senior Iranian officials on Saturday. They believe that one of the few existing obstacles with Iran is resolving unresolved issues related to IAEA inspections in the country.
Concerns continue to grow, especially in Congress, about the Biden administration’s agreement to a deal that gives too much to the Iranians and does not build tight control over Iran’s nuclear program.
Gabriel Noronha, a former State Department official who worked on Iran during the Trump administration, said he heard from current government officials who were concerned about the United States’ ability to lift sanctions against certain Iranians.
“My former career at @stateDept, NSC and EU colleagues are so concerned about the concessions made by @RobMalley in Vienna that they have allowed me to publish some details of the upcoming deal in the hope that Congress will act to stop the surrender.” , he wrote on Twitter on Wednesday, citing fears that the Biden administration was planning to overturn an executive order signed by Trump that sanctioned Iranians in the supreme leader’s office.
A State Department spokesman said the administration would not negotiate publicly or respond to specific allegations of sanctions that could be lifted as part of a reciprocal return to full implementation of the JCPOA.