After months of fighting, the Ukrainian army finally withdrew from the city of Avdiivka in the east of the country. “A fair decision” to “save as many lives as possible,” declared Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday, February 17, from the podium at the Munich Security Conference. What consequences does this war, which has now been going on for two years, have for Ukraine and Russia? Comments by General Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the Revue Défense Nationale.
Published on: February 17, 2024 – 1:30 p.m
3 mins
RFI: The Ukrainian army had no choice but to withdraw from Avdiivka?
Jerome Pellistrandi: Staying had no military interest. Because Russian pressure was extremely important. The city is almost destroyed, had 34,000 inhabitants before the war and almost 900 residents are holed up in the cellars. From a military point of view, it was therefore preferable to retreat a few kilometers, even if this meant effectively leaving the city in the hands of the Russians and, in a sense, giving Vladimir Putin a Pyrrhic victory. The Ukrainian army managed to delay the start of the Battle of Avdiivka for many months in October last year. This allowed the Russian armed forces to be enormously weakened, but remaining there would actually have meant losses. Without achieving any real gain on a tactical level. The newly appointed new chief of staff of the Ukrainian army ultimately made the most militarily sensible decision. This is a tactical retreat and does not mean that the Russians have won a masterful victory.
Also read: After months of intense fighting, Ukrainian army withdraws from Avdiivka
Is this primarily a symbolic victory for Russia?
Yes, because the Russians will actually conquer a lot of ruins. They had already tried to take the city in 2014, but failed. This tactical retreat allows them to plant the flag in a completely devastated city center and effectively serve Putin's propaganda. But propaganda that ultimately will not have much impact, of course outside of Russian public opinion, which we know is determined by Kremlin propaganda. The capture of Avdiivka after months of fighting also means that the Russian army has little ability to exploit this advantage. This means that on a continuous front where Russian artillery is certainly stronger than Ukrainian artillery, the Kremlin does not have the means to launch an offensive offensive again, at least for the coming weeks, as it did almost three years ago .
Can the withdrawal from Avdiivka help Volodymyr Zelensky gain more support from his Western allies?
Yes, and it is no coincidence that Volodymyr Zelensky is today at the Munich Security Conference, this extremely important strategic-level meeting where many Western leaders meet. And he needs more ammunition. That's why he signed a bilateral security agreement with France yesterday. Because he needs it for the coming weeks and months to hold out on the front line and wait for possible changes on site. But at the moment the most important thing is to hold out against Russia in the long term.
Also read: At the Munich conference, Volodymyr Zelensky calls for his allies to take responsibility