Pierre Dorion had one of the biggest hits in last year’s NHL draft when he signed sharpshooter Alex DeBrincat in a trade that seemed to signal the official end of Ottawa’s rebuild.
“The acquisition of Alex brings immediate and additional strength to our Forward group,” said Dorion following the trade.
However, a year later, Dorion seems ready to transfer DeBrincat to another club. And that makes the DeBrincat situation one of the most intriguing storylines for next week’s draft in Nashville.
The senators filed an arbitration case with DeBrincat earlier this month, a mechanism that will serve as a catalyst to try to reach something before both sides are due for a hearing in early August. In all likelihood, the arbitration hearing will never happen and there will be a resolution for DeBrincat and the senators.
Although DeBrincat is a limited free agent, DeBrincat’s camp holds great influence. Next summer he can test the unrestricted free hand, so he can just be patient and wait until he can choose his target. As reported by Pierre LeBrun, DeBrincat’s camp is willing to consider the idea of a sign-and-trade scenario for a list of some approved destinations, which could include Detroit, Nashville, Vegas and Dallas.
If the Senators intend to trade with DeBrincat, it would be logical to assume the deal would be finalized sometime around the NHL Draft. This is the window when GMs seem more receptive to big changes and teams have more flexibility on rosters and caps.
And when a two-time 40-goal scorer – who is just 25 – comes onto the market, interest in his acquisition should be keen.
What could the senators expect in return?
There are two schools of thought about what Senators might expect in exchange for DeBrincat.
First, they would simply be looking to recoup as much draft capital as possible considering they picked Chicago 7th in the 2022 draft, plus an additional second-round and fourth-round picker to sign DeBrincat last summer. Given that Ottawa gave up their 2023 first-round pick to Arizona at the close to take on Jakob Chychrun, it’s clear they could use some extra picks in the top half of the draft. Ottawa only has a fourth-round pick in this year’s draft.
Add to that the fact that 2021’s No. 10 Tyler Boucher is still considered a project, and it’s easy to see that Ottawa’s pipeline of high-end prospects is suddenly pretty thin. In Scott Wheeler’s potential pipeline ranking earlier this year, the Senators landed at #24.
By trading solely against draft picks, Senators could replenish their prospect pool and then turn around and use the salary savings to seek help through free agency or a trade.
The other argument, however, is that Ottawa is now entering its competitive window as a playoff-caliber team in the Eastern Conference, and its actions should be guided by a “win-now” philosophy. The times when talented players were traded for prospects and draft picks should be in his rearview mirror.
If the Senators adopt this approach, they should target two areas on their NHL roster for help next season. The first would be the goalie position, where the Senators have a big question mark. After a miserable swap between Cam Talbot and Filip Gustavsson, Ottawa have yet to find a capable and consistent goalkeeper to play alongside Anton Forsberg next season.
The other area Ottawa needs to address is its forward group in the bottom six – with wingers in the third row and Shane Pinto as the main priority. DeBrincat’s loss could be mitigated somewhat by the return of Josh Norris, a prolific center who should be able to make up for the 27 goals DeBrincat lacked for Ottawa. And with Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson on the team, scoring for Ottawa really shouldn’t be much of a problem in DeBrincat’s absence.
But after Mathieu Joseph struggled last season and Tyler Motte was replaced, there are questions about who could take a third-row winger role alongside Pinto next season. The fourth row is also razor thin and unless Ridly Greig is ready for full-time promotion to the NHL this fall, there will be plenty of room for competition.
In an ideal world, Senators could use a hybrid model in a DeBrincat trade, trying to combine assets that meet multiple needs. Maybe they can land a mid-to-late first-round pick as well as a third-row winger or goalie.
How much cap flexibility do senators have?
If the Senators aren’t going to take DeBrincat and his $9 million salary next season, they should have a degree of flexibility to accept some cash if needed. According to CapFriendly, they have just over $17 million in cap space available for next season.
Ottawa has yet to re-sign restricted free agents with Pinto and Erik Brannstrom, but neither of those deals should be a cause for concern. Even if those two players combined for a $6 million AAV, the Senators should have enough room to add a goalie and a couple of forwards to play in the bottom six.
The biggest contract issue for Ottawa this season is probably Jake Sanderson, who will be able to sign a new contract this summer. Sanderson’s next deal – which won’t come into force until the 2024/25 season – could add value that catapults him into the stratosphere of Stützle, Tkachuk and Chabot. So Dorion should really capitalize on the final season, with Sanderson getting paid on his entry-level deal.
What could DeBrincat’s next contract be?
DeBrincat has established himself as one of the most reliable and consistent snipers since entering the league in 2017-18. His 187 goals ranked him 14th in the NHL during that period, and he was close to players like Steven Stamkos (194), Sebastian Aho (190), and Mika Zibanejad (190).
He’s averaged 0.42 goals per game, which also puts him in the NHL’s top 25 since 2017-18. After a poor season in which he scored 27 goals, DeBrincat is still on the verge of a major contract.
Evolving Hockey’s contract projection tool suggests DeBrincat’s next deal will have an AAV in excess of $8 million. Their model puts the highest probability of an eight-year contract, which would top out at $9.05 million per season. Anything under eight years goes down in the AAV, however — a six- or seven-year deal is closer to $8 million, which is closer to its market value.
A contract reaching the maximum tenure for a player of his caliber is the closest match to Matthew Tkachuk’s eight-year contract, which was signed last summer. It would be close to Mikko Rantanen and Kirill Kaprizov in terms of AVV and absorbed cap space. That might feel a little overkill for DeBrincat, since he’s a high-profile forward but doesn’t quite have the “franchise player” status that those forwards have. That could keep him in the lower league, maybe closer to Brady Tkachuk or Jesper Bratt.
Is there a scenario where DeBrincat could stay in Ottawa?
One thing we should learn is to never say never.
However, with the change of ownership imminent, it seems highly unlikely that DeBrincat would sign a long-term contract extension in Ottawa right now. One has to assume that the new owner Michael Andlauer would like to agree to a contract extension of this magnitude.
However, Andlauer will not have an opportunity to officially comment on the hockey club until the completion of his purchase, which may not happen until later this summer.
There’s a slim chance DeBrincat will come back to play the final season of team control in Ottawa, with Dorion even suggesting that if he wins an arbitration, it will result in a $9 million reduction in his projected salary for the next one Season could lead by 15 percent. In that case, DeBrincat would come back with a salary of $7.65 million.
But the Senators have already trodden that path with Mark Stone, and it would certainly be a bold and risky strategy to let DeBrincat play out the final year of his contract beyond the 2023-24 season without security.
Which teams might be interested in DeBrincat?
Detroit Red Wings
Last summer, in free agency, the Red Wings really focused on defense and goalkeeping. While there is still work to be done in both areas this summer, it could be that the focus is more on increasing up front – especially after Tyler Bertuzzi’s timely departure.
Detroit ranked in the bottom five in offensive production last year in both quantity and quality of shooting and actual results. That’s why management must try to change that and really improve their top-six forward group. Stylistically, DeBrincat’s scoring would suit the Red Wings. It also wouldn’t hurt to target some real playmakers to complement him and No. 1 center Dylan Larkin.
Few teams are in as strong a position as Detroit. The Red Wings have plenty of cap place, a strong prospect pipeline, and a slew of picks — including five picks in the first two rounds this year and two first-rounders next year. Management can afford to take over DeBrincat, lengthen it and make changes elsewhere in the lineup.
As ideal as Detroit is for DeBrincat, there’s a key issue: its position in the Atlantic Division. Both the Red Wings and Senators are looking to advance to the playoffs, and sending DeBrincat there only increases their opponents’ chances (and hurts their own unless he’s replaced with a top NHL-level player in Ottawa) . It would therefore not be surprising that there would be a kind of sharing tax if an agreement were reached here.
Nashville Predators
A new era is dawning in Nashville, because in a few days Barrydiot will officially take over the management of the company. The message of defiance is already clear: the Predators need to step up their offense. It was a factor that contributed to her coaching change from John Hynes to Andrew Brunette. But this team needs help from more than just the bank; The squad could also use more real offensive threats.
The focus should be on Nashville centers, but that shouldn’t stop management from bolstering winger strength – especially when a player like DeBrincat could be available. The winger’s finishing talent would certainly be welcome in the Predators’ attacking attack, considering the team were among the worst at converting chances last season. The same goes for his ability to create offense off the rush as this roster could use more puck carriers.
Nashville has the assets to trade; In particular, the draft stock after it has been replenished in the past period. The question is, is the timing right – do the Predators see themselves as a team that can effect enough change to be back on the rise in the near future during DeBrincat’s heyday? Or will that be a long process?
Seattle Kraken
In the past two years, defensive strength has become a staple of Kraken hockey. The focus remains on that. In the final break of the season, management looked for goal assistance to complement the team’s ability to suppress shots. This was noted in Andre Burakovsky and Oliver Björkstrand, as well as Eeli Tolvanen’s mid-season waivers. Combined with the existing forward group, led by Jared McCann, who has scored 40 goals this season, they created an offensive where all four rows counted towards scoring.
While that helped propel the Kraken into postseason and Round 2, they’re not quite there yet. Along with that depth of points, there’s still a need for some star power. Matty Beniers is starting to become a star in Seattle, but there’s still room for more. This is where DeBrincat could come in.
This is a deal the Kraken should be able to pull off given their draft capital and cap position. But would management want to sign the striker and seal a big deal with him? Ron Francis is not known for making flashy and expensive deals. And if he has to do that with Vince Dunn this summer, will he also want to limit the team’s cap flexibility with DeBrincat? Even factoring in the general manager’s signing tendencies, it’s possible because DeBrincat is young enough to help this team still play the long game.
Washington Capitals
The Capitals have become a truly fascinating team after taking a step back at deadline and making an on-the-fly switch. These replenished resources allow the team to have more player movement this summer; Washington has its own set of firsts over the next three years, plus a few extra seconds and thirds.
While the Capitals were sold on time, the idea is probably not to continue this this summer unless it frees up space for the Caps. Anthony Mantha and Evgeny Kuznetsov appear to be Washington’s main targets to achieve this. Now the focus is on quickly transforming the team with young players who can contribute both in Alex Ovechkin’s era and in the future. That’s why Washington added a player like Rasmus Sandin in the spring, and that’s why DeBrincat might make sense now.
Although DeBrincat, like Ovechkin, is a right-handed shoot-first player, he wouldn’t be redundant. The Capitals need to bolster their back line to ensure they have a capable scorer available in the minutes when their franchise star is off the ice. The 25-year-old lives up to those expectations.
One consideration for Ottawa is similar to what might inform his Detroit thinking: Do they want to help the Capitals return to the playoffs when they may have to compete with them for a wildcard spot next spring?
Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes are among the best attacking players in the league, but this team still needs more finishing talent. After Timo Meier was absent at the close of trading, management could now focus on DeBrincat. The forward could provide some equalization for Andrei Svechnikov in the top six, adding to the team’s two-way talent.
Carolina is in a unique position among its peers as it has a lot of cap space and tradable assets. While this team could easily afford DeBrincat’s next contract, even if it were at a higher price point, the long-term implications still need to be considered. Sebastian Aho’s contract expires next summer and he could hit the $10 million mark. Marty Necas and Seth Jarvis, two of the team’s young forwards, will be looking for raises. Additionally, there are still question marks on the defense as the contracts of their second duo, Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce, are both expiring. So any big expense has implications for the rest of the squad that need to be considered first.
Perhaps the players looking for new contracts, apart from Aho of course, could be part of the return. Necas has been in the market before and has just completed a career year. Or if one of his defenders doesn’t seem to have a future, management could be proactive there. Those expiring contracts may not deter Carolina from a potential trade, as it would bring in the skills she clearly needs more of.
Alex DeBrincat and Antti Raanta. (James Guillory / USA Today)
Vegas Golden Knights
If the Golden Knights are known for anything, it’s their tendency to make it big. Whenever there’s a high-end player on the market, Vegas gets involved. And if this big signing should put their finances in question, management has shown they’re willing to let players go just to hit the cap.
That’s what they’d have to do if they included DeBrincat, since the cap space isn’t currently available. While Vegas does have first-timers over the next three years, it’s not as asset-rich as others who may be interested or are on DeBrincat’s team roster.
Perhaps the Golden Knights realize they can take a cautious step and thrive; After all, they only just won the Stanley Cup after Ivan Barbashev was their big Deadline signing. But if he leaves as a free agent, Vegas could look elsewhere for top six talent.
Dallas Stars
Like Vegas, the stars could be on DeBrincat’s team roster. But like Vegas, they’re not the most plausible option.
It would make sense for the Stars to try and increase their point depth below their top line. It’s improved over the last year, but the team still isn’t the place to really want to fight for the Stanley Cup. DeBrincat would fit right into her “young core” of Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen, which helps even out some of her veterans.
However, there are two key challenges that would require creativity from management: clarifying the cap and finding assets to complete a trade. Dallas doesn’t have a premiere this year, but it does have the next two. As such, the stars may need to draw on their potential pool or switch a young squad player. They would have to forego some salary, and buying Ryan Suter’s contract probably won’t cover what DeBrincat’s next deal will cost.
– Data on CapFriendly, Evolving-Hockey and AllThreeZones
(Top Photo: Christian Petersen/Getty Images)