The stock market will collapse. Renowned stock market gurus have been making this “bad” prediction for a long time
Among them is forecaster François Trahan of Trahan Macro Research. In an interview with La Presse, he said he expected a recession and a significant decline in the stock market, even going so far as to expect a “time bomb” in the market. Last September, he predicted a 35% decline in the S&P 500, sending the New York Stock Exchange barometer down to 2,800 points. The S&P was at 4275 points at the time. Today the S&P 500 is at almost 4900 points.
Two years ago, François Trahan declared on the set of a public affairs program on TVA that he expected an “apocalyptic” situation in 2023 and 2024, possibly leading to rising unemployment and a financial crisis. We're still waiting for it…
For your information, Trahan was inducted into the Institutional Investors Hall of Fame in 2016 as a strategist. Among his most important predictions was that in 2007 he predicted the end of the speculative real estate bubble that had plunged the stock market into a dramatic descent into hell in 2008 and 2009.
- Listen to the economy part with Michel Girard above QUB :
EVEN MORE ALARMISTIC…
François Trahan is not the only guru in the camp of the great pessimists.
I found another who was even more pessimistic and alarmist than François Trahan.
This is the American economist and best-selling author Harry S. Dent from the company HS Dent. He recently warned Fox News Digital audiences that 2024 would be the biggest crash of his life, with stocks, cryptocurrencies and real estate collapsing spectacularly throughout the year.
His predictions? An 86% plunge for the S&P 500 index; a 92 percent drop in the NASDAQ; a 96% drop in cryptocurrency; and a 50 percent collapse for an average home.
The cause? According to Dent, these assets are all in a bubble as prices have reached dangerous and unsustainable levels. “I think 2024 will be the biggest crash year of our lifetime,” he said.
You may be wondering: What has this Harry S. Dent predicted in the past to give him credibility?
- Listen to the economy part with Michel Girard above QUB :
PROVEN PREDICTIONS
In 1988, as the Dow Jones fluctuated between 1,879 and 2,184 points in the months following the famous October 1987 crash, Dent predicted that the Dow Jones would reach 10,000 points before 2000. Which was the case.
In my column “The Dow Jones at 35,000 points”, which appeared in La Presse on July 11, 1998, when the Dow Jones was at 9,100 points, I dedicated my column to the new stock market forecasts that Dent made in the renowned Wall Street weekly newspaper had , Barrons.
Dent predicted that within ten years, i.e. in 2008, the Dow Jones could eventually reach a peak of 35,000 points, almost four times the value of the Dow Jones at the time. In the “worst case” scenario, he assumed that the Dow would reach at least the 21,500 point mark.
Reality? At the end of September 2007, the Dow Jones reached the 14,000 point mark. This peak was followed by a gigantic stock market crash that reached its lowest point in March 2009.
And from then on, the stock market reached extraordinary heights again. In 2017, the Dow Jones finally exceeded the 20,000 point mark and in July 2021 it passed the 35,000 point mark.
Today it struts to over 38,000 points, a historic high.
And Harry S. Dent is now predicting a stock market collapse.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed that he gets it completely wrong this time!
However, in the stock market, if you predict that the stock market will fall sharply, and as long as you keep the same saying, one day you will be able to say: I told you so!