Given the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House, the head of the EU's largest political group is calling on Europeans to prepare for war without US support and to build their own nuclear shield.
Manfred Weber, leader of the center-right European People's Party (EPP), which is currently in first place in June's European Parliament election, described Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin as “the two who are setting the framework” for 2024.
Trump's seemingly imminent coronation as the Republican presidential nominee after victories in Iowa and New Hampshire has unsettled Europe, where he is remembered as a NATO skeptic, accusing EU countries of not paying their price and threatening to attack Europe in the event of an attack not to come to help.
“We want NATO, but we also have to be strong enough to be able to defend ourselves without it or in times of Trump,” Weber said in a telephone interview with POLITICO on the return of a train trip to Kiev. “No matter who is elected in America, Europe must stand on its own two feet in terms of foreign policy and be able to defend itself independently,” said the influential German conservative.
That brought him to the delicate question of European nuclear defense. NATO currently relies heavily on US nuclear warheads stationed at six military airfields in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey.
“Europe must build deterrence, we must be able to deter and defend ourselves,” he said. “We all know that when push comes to shove, the nuclear option is the really decisive one.”
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin has sharpened his nuclear rhetoric significantly, regularly issuing veiled nuclear threats to the West.
Within the EU, the only country that could play a major role would be France, which has around 300 nuclear warheads.
French President Emmanuel Macron floated the idea of a French-led European nuclear deterrent in 2020 when he called for a “strategic dialogue” on “the role of the French nuclear deterrent in Europe.” [Europe’s] “But Germany never accepted this offer. In 2022, France again pushed for discussion with Berlin, saying the offer was still on the table.
According to Weber, now is the time to bring back the idea of internationalizing the force de frappe.
“I would like to see the European dimension of nuclear defense as a long-term goal,” said the EPP leader. “But as long as this is not realistic, we should accept Macron’s offer and now think about how France’s nuclear armament can also be embedded in European structures.”
The other European nuclear power – albeit outside the EU – is Great Britain with fewer than around 260 warheads. “Perhaps, just to clarify the options: we are now at a point where, after the years and decade of Brexit, we should begin a constructive dialogue with our British friends,” Weber continued.
Since Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine, Putin has significantly ratcheted up his nuclear rhetoric Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images
“They also have difficulty ensuring their safety. They are also running out of money for the two aircraft carriers they have. They also find it difficult to maintain their capacity. And in that respect, perhaps the time has now come. It is also right to start an organized structured dialogue with the UK.”
Weber acknowledged that while the continent was divided on issues such as Russia and defense, politicians from centrist parties needed to better assess the risks.
“We have to be honest with people,” he argued. “We shouldn’t hide the reality of the threat posed by Putin in order to somehow create the feeling that things won’t get that bad.”