Sharron Hodge, email: [email protected]

United states — Since the 1970s, the volume of passenger travel by vehicles and airplanes has experienced significant growth in industrialized countries. The International Energy Agency had previously projected a continuous, albeit slower, expansion in travel until 2030 and beyond. However, a recent study conducted across eight industrialized nations reveals that passenger travel likely reached its zenith in the early 2000s, just before the notable surge in fuel prices. This development suggests a potential saturation point in the demand for travel, challenging previous expectations of escalating carbon dioxide emissions and fuel consumption.

The research, led by Lee Schipper from the University of California, Berkeley, and Adam Millard-Ball, a doctoral candidate at Stanford University, scrutinized travel patterns in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden, France, Germany, Japan, and Australia from 1970 to 2008. Their analysis encompassed various modes of transportation, including cars, pickup trucks, buses, planes, trains, light rail, streetcars, and subways, comparing the distance traveled per capita per year with each country’s gross domestic product per capita.

The study identified a correlation between rising prosperity and passenger travel from 1970 to 2003. After this period, passenger travel ceased its growth trajectory, even as GDP per capita continued to rise. At the peak of travel in the early 2000s, the GDP per capita was $37,000 in the US and ranged between $25,000 and $30,000 in the other seven countries. Subsequently, motorized travel in the US plateaued at around 26,000 km/year per person, 10,000 km/year per person in Japan, and between 13,000 and 17,000 km/year per person in the remaining six countries.

In recent years, the study noted a leveling off or decline in motorized travel demand in most of the countries analyzed, with a decrease in travel via private vehicles. Despite an increase in car ownership, these vehicles are being driven less frequently. The researchers attributed this travel plateau to various factors, including saturation in vehicle ownership, time constraints, high gas prices, and an aging population less inclined to commute.

A significant factor contributing to the observed travel plateau, according to the researchers, is traffic congestion. Lee Schipper emphasized that the limited road space in densely populated cities worldwide impedes further growth in car usage. While acknowledging the importance of fuel efficiency and hybrid vehicles in addressing emissions, Schipper highlighted that even zero-emission cars contribute to traffic problems.

One potential advantage of the apparent peak in travel is that if passenger travel remains stable while vehicles become more fuel-efficient, the challenge of reducing transportation emissions may be less daunting than previously anticipated. Presently, the average American car consumes one-third less fuel per mile than in 1973, despite consumer preferences for larger vehicles.

Despite the study’s findings not being conclusive, the researchers urge caution in assuming that travel demand will inevitably continue to rise. They recommend further research to refine our understanding of these trends and their implications.

In early 2010, U.S. leisure and business travelers were keen on value and affordability when planning their trips, resulting in London, Rome, and Paris securing the top positions on HotelsCombined.com’s list of international destinations. Adding variety to the mix were Bangkok, Sydney, Dubai, and Cancun.

On the domestic front, the preferred destinations for U.S. travelers were New York City, Las Vegas, Miami Beach, Orlando, New Orleans, and Miami, showcasing a diverse range of choices.

HotelsCombined.com General Manager, Michael Doubinski, noted that both vacationers and business travelers were capitalizing on competitive deals amid the current tourism climate. He emphasized that consumers were actively seeking economical options for accommodations and flights to maximize their spending power. Doubinski highlighted the prevailing weak economy and hotel rates, cautioning that as the industry rebounds, finding budget-friendly deals might become more challenging.

The decline in room rates, recorded at 8.8 percent by data firm Smith Travel Research, was a boon for travelers, offering attractive deals before the onset of the northern summer months.

London emerged as the clear favorite for American travelers in 2010, boasting an average room rate of $166. It outpaced Rome at $148 and Paris at $197. Long-haul destinations like Hong Kong and Sydney secured the fourth and fifth spots with competitive rates of $100 and $171, respectively. Bangkok, at sixth place, enticed international travelers with a nightly rate as low as $77. Barcelona claimed the seventh spot with average rates of $154, while Playa del Carmen ranked eighth as the most expensive in the top ten at $240. Cancun, in ninth place, offered average rates of $192, and Dubai, in the tenth position, incurred the second-highest nightly prices at $227 for U.S. visitors.

On the domestic front, New York City maintained its allure as the top choice for U.S. visitors, despite its $180 average rate being the country’s second-highest. Las Vegas, the second-favorite city, boasted a more affordable rate of $110 per night. Miami Beach claimed the third spot with the highest average U.S. room bill of $203, while Orlando, in fourth place, offered the most attractive hotel rates in the top 10, averaging $90 per night.

New Orleans, Miami, San Francisco, Chicago, Honolulu, and Los Angeles rounded out the list with varying price points, showcasing the diversity of choices available to travelers. The top cities listed by HotelsCombined.com aligned with Skyscanner’s ‘Most Searched for Destinations for 2010 from U.S. Airports,’ indicating a consistent preference among travelers for destinations like London, New York City, Las Vegas, Paris, Los Angeles, Orlando, Rome, and Miami.

In line with these trends, a Travelzoo survey forecasted that 74 percent of respondents would only consider vacationing in 2010 if they found a good deal. Despite the focus on competitive deals, TripAdvisor’s annual survey revealed that Americans anticipated increased travel in 2010, with 41 percent planning to spend more on leisure travel compared to 2009.