Ukraine’s nuclear power plant on fire
The Zaporizh nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine is on fire, according to numerous Ukrainian government officials, local and national. Russian troops have shelled the site, with troops reportedly entering the facility. Ukrainian authorities have called on Russian troops to cease fire and allow firefighters to respond. Zaporozhye is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and one of the 10 largest in the world.
In 1986, while Ukraine was still part of the Soviet Union, the Chernobyl nuclear power plant suffered a major accident, considered the worst in human history in terms of costs and casualties.
Ukraine invasion: ‘The worst is yet to come’
Earlier, Ukraine said an “understanding” had been reached with Russia on humanitarian corridors, allowing Ukrainian civilians to evacuate from besieged towns and launching humanitarian aid. This would include a local ceasefire around these corridors.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin said on television that his invasion of Ukraine was “going according to plan.” The Russian military is gaining territory, especially in the south along the Black Sea. But he suffered significant losses in troops and equipment. Economic pain continues to intensify with growing calls to sanction Russian energy.
French President Emmanuel Macron has said he fears “the worst is yet to come” after a lengthy phone conversation with Russian dictator Putin. He said Putin seemed determined to continue his invasion of Ukraine until he controlled the entire country. Russia has used artillery and bombs to strike major cities, striking many residential areas.
Dow Jones futures today
Dow Jones futures fell 1.5 percent against fair value, turning from modest gains from the report that the Zaporizhka PP is on fire. S&P 500 futures fell 1.75 percent. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2 percent.
Crude oil prices rose 4 percent. The yield on 10-year bonds fell 8 basis points to 1.76 percent. As with stock futures, big changes in oil yields and government bonds came in the news about the nuclear power plant in Ukraine.
Dow futures are sure to move ahead of the February jobs report before the market opens.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular session of the stock market.
The stock exploded on Thursday
Union Pacific (UNP) exploded from a flat intraday base despite cutting closing profits. Fellow rail operator CSX (CSX) flashes an aggressive record.
By Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) also exploded. Berkshire, best known as an insurance giant, another pocket of market power, also owns the BNSF railroad. Having a huge investment in Apple (AAPL) doesn’t hurt Berkshire either.
Kroger (KR) has drifted off the earnings base, while Farmer’s Sprout Market (SFM) has also triggered buy signals. Thor and lithium play SQM (SQM) jumped off the base of soaring profits and bullish comments on prices.
But growth stocks were lagging behind, especially the highly valued names. In Snowflake (SNOW), the sale of profits and guidance sparked heavy sales of many names.
This includes Datadog (DDOG) and Tesla (TSLA), two of the relatively prominent among three-digit PE shares.
Key gains
Costco Wholesale (PRICE) and Broadcom (AVGO) headlined gains on Thursday night.
Costco’s profits and revenues surpassed the number of views. But same-store sales growth, albeit above official fiscal outlooks for the second quarter, slowed relative to Q1. COST shares fell 3 percent overnight. The stock rose 1 percent to $533.05 on Thursday. Costco shares had a buying point of $571.59. Investors could use 534.34, just above the short-term resistance of the 50-day line, as an aggressive entry.
Broadcom’s earnings and guidance were better than expected. AVGO shares rose 2.5 percent late. The stock fell 1.2 percent to 578.60 on Thursday. Broadcom shares consolidated but had to surpass their 50-day high and short-term peak for an aggressive entry of 614.74. The official purchase point was 677.86.
Tesla and Union Pacific shares are in ibd leaderboard, while CSX shares have been added to Leaderboard’s watch list. Union Pacific was also available on the day for IBD on Thursday.
The video embedded in this article discusses market action on Thursday and analyzes the shares of UNP, Anthem (ANTM) and DDOG shares.
Jobs report
At 8:30 a.m., ET, the Labor Department will release its February jobs report. Economists expect non-farm payrolls to rise by 390,000, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.9%. The labor force participation rate will be key as the Fed looks for signs of an increased workforce to ease supply chain tight spots and wage pressures.
The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a point at its March 15-16 meeting. But the jobs report, the upcoming Consumer Price Index in February and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can still change that decision.
Join IBD experts as they analyze the shares that can be taken in the stock market rally in IBD Live
Stock market rally
The stock market rally opened strongly, but almost immediately fell, with growth and small-cap stocks the hardest hit.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.35 percent in stock market trading on Thursday. The S&P 500 index fell 0.6 percent. The Nasdaq composite index fell 1.6 percent. The Russell 2000 gave up 1.2 percent.
Crude oil prices fell 2.6 percent to $107.67 per barrel after surpassing $114 in pre-market trading. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi has called for a halt to Russian oil imports from the United States, which would have a relatively limited impact. However, the majority of Russian crude oil exports fail to attract buyers. In addition to the Russia-Ukraine headlines, Western nations and Russia are making progress toward a new Iran nuclear agreement. That would free up large Iranian crude oil exports.
The yield on 10-year government bonds also turned lower, falling about 2 basis points to 1.84 percent.
ETFs
Сред най-добрите ETF, Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) се понижи с 0,1%, докато Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) загуби 0,7%. ETF на iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) отстъпи с 2,5%. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) потъна с 2,2%.
The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) rose 3.2%, while the Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) rose 0.5%. The US Global Jets ETF (JETS) fell 3.4 percent. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) fell 1.1%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 0.3% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) fell 0.3%. The Health Care Fund for selected spdr sector (XLV) increased by 0.5%.
Reflecting the more speculative stock stories, ark innovation ETF (ARKK) fell 6.4% and ark genomics ETF (ARKG) by 4.6%. Ark Invest has only minimal exposure to SNOW’s shares, but many of its highly valued holdings failed on Thursday in snowflake’s avalanche. Tesla shares remain number one in ARK Invest’s ETFs.
Five best Chinese stocks to watch now
Railway operators
Union Pacific shares rose 1.15 percent to 256.21, closing near the bottom of the session. That’s after reaching 263.59 within the day, above the buying point of 256.21 for most of the day, according to MarketSmith. The flat base is only 8% depth. The relative strength of UNP stocks is at a record high. The RS line, the blue line in the charts provided, tracks the performance of the shares against the S&P 500 index.
CSX shares jumped 2 percent to $35.29, closing at their 50-day close. Within the day, the stock cleared its February peak, offering an aggressive entrance. The point of purchase with an equal basis is 38.11.
Berkshire Hathaway is best known for its insurance operations and Warren Buffett’s investments. But BNSF’s rail operations are a key part of the business. BRKB shares rose 1.2 percent to 327.63. That cleared the four-week high with an official buying point of 325.73. Investors may view mid-January consolidation as an untidy flat base.
The rail advance comes as shipping companies generally do well. Ocean carriers such as Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK) and Zim Integrated Delivery (ZIM) have been leading for a long time. Meanwhile, JB Hunt Transport (JBHT) is applicable as other transport companies start to look interesting.
IBD Digital: Unlock ibd’s premium stock, tools and analysis lists today
Market rally analysis
The attempted stock market rally opened Thursday with the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq moving above their 21-day moving average, while the Dow Jones industrial average reached just that level. But within a minute, the main indices stepped back and turned upside down,
The 21-day indicator acts as a resistance to major indices for most of 2022.
Thursday was an outside day for the Nasdaq, meaning its intraday range exceeded Wednesday’s highs and lows. Outside days make more sense. So the downward reversal was even more daunting.
Aggressive growth was wiped out on Thursday. Snowflake surpassed expectations late on Wednesday, doubling revenue and slightly pointing higher for the current fiscal year. But that wasn’t enough, as SNOW shares fell 15% to a nine-month low. A host of other highly valued stocks, especially software, were also sold out.
DDOG shares fell 9.7%, back below their 50-day line.
Tesla shares, while performing much better than most EV games, fell 4.6%, back below their 21-day line, but just managed to hold on to their 21-day average.
Still, the attempt at a market rally remains intact. At any time, a subsequent day may occur to confirm the new upward trend.
Market time with IBD’s ETF market strategy
What to do now
Just because a high school student is on “college” doesn’t mean she’ll graduate from MIT with honors or even graduate from high school.
Wednesday’s strong gains, which were less than the previous session, were encouraging. But without a day of follow-up and the main indices still anchored below the 21-day line, there was no reason to significantly add exposure.
The experience of a market rally could become a confirmed upward trend in the near future, and this upward trend may have legs. But the news-oriented market could quickly head south. Moreover, some sectors that have done well, especially in energy and commodities, may stand in the background if the broader indices are going steadily.
So if and when the market rally shows strength, gradually increase your exposure. For now, investors may want to take at least partial profits from the winners when they reach 10%.
There’s still nothing wrong with being all or almost all in cash.
Continue working on the watch lists. Stay engaged to be ready for the market reversal.
Read the Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the direction of the market and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
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