If the Gulf Stream were to collapse, as a new study suggests, it would have devastating consequences for the planet; in Austria there would be “unprecedented climate extremes”, says German climate researcher Stefan Rahmstorf – and yet he detects alarmism.
The Gulf Stream is on the verge of collapse, Europe is threatened by a new ice age: this catastrophe report circulated around the world last week. The trigger for this: a Dutch study that proved for the first time that the Atlantic Current could weaken if more freshwater entered the sea due to global warming and melting ice. How great really is the danger of this tipping point – which, once passed, would lead to irreversible changes in the global climate? And what would be the consequences? “Presse” asked one of the world's leading experts, climate researcher Stefan Rahmstorf, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
The Press: Research has shown that the Gulf Stream has been weakening since 1950. Furthermore, there is a risk of a tipping point at which it collapses – what's different about this new study?
Stefan Rahmstorf: More important than what changed is what was confirmed: we see for the first time in a truly high-resolution global ocean-atmosphere model that this tipping point actually exists in the way we previously saw in simpler models. This is an extremely complex computer simulation and ran for half a year on a high-performance computer at the Dutch Super Computing Center. It's reassuring that the science is right so far. It is quite worrying for humanity.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change classified this risk of tipping at less than ten percent. This is wrong?