Colombians decide on the country’s new president this Sunday, 19; Experts warn that the winner will have a lot of work to do, especially in the social and economic part
Juan BARRETO, Yuri CORTEZ / AFP
The Colombians will decide on the new president of the country this Sunday, 19. On the one hand, leftist Gustavo Petro promises economic improvements. On the other hand, the populist Rodolfo Hernández, who doesn’t see himself as a politician, assures that he will end dissatisfaction with the class that rules in the US Colombia. According to experts, these are the two main problems and the reasons why candidates from the traditional right, which has been very popular in the recent past, did not make it to the second round. “Each of them collects a discontent in general,” points out International Relations Professor at PUC Arthur Murta.
In the polls released on June 13, Petro and Hernández appear level. Colombian analysts are already assuming that the election could be decided by a difference of 300,000 votes if the numbers remain as they are. Despite the different positions, the candidates share the desire for change. Even if the choice is divided between left and right, experts declare that Colombia is crossing the barrier of polarization.
Rise of Rodolfo Hernadez
The desire for a president who keeps his promises because the current Iván Duque Márquez is completely discredited further exacerbates the dispute. According to polls, Petro’s lead in the first half of the season is already gone. In some of them, Hernandez, who was discredited for most of the campaign, reportedly won. The antisystem businessman turned the tables with his combative speech and put up a strong fight to win the election. “He managed to communicate with the population as this candidate who fights against the powerful, who is outside of politics,” emphasizes Murta. Eduardo Fayet, Professor of International and Government Relations at Mackenzie, explains that the decline in the structure of the traditional political system gives advantages to those who present themselves as new, prompting the population to search for a candidate who is “the solution to… it will bring problems”. .
Colombian presidential candidate Rodolfo Hernandez has stopped appearing in public after claiming his life was in danger│Eva Marie Uzcategui/AFP
For Tomaz Paoliello, Professor of International Relations at PUC, this phenomenon of the discredited candidate seemingly appearing out of nowhere and defending himself in this way has already become elementary school. The most classic example is Donald Trump, former President of the United States. It is worth remembering that Hernández is constantly compared to the American, a businessman like him. Ricardo Leães, Professor of International Relations at ESPM, recalls that the Colombian “outsider” did not participate in campaigns virtually and used TikTok a lot.
Experts cite that Hernández’s government plan is unclear. But somehow “he managed to win a good part of the votes from the sectors that have already voted for the right,” Leães points out. Though he considers himself a rightwing candidate, the businessman defends programs like drugfree and abortion. He also pledged to resume diplomatic relations with Venezuela and recognize Nicolas Maduro as its president. For the professor, this would “ultimately lead to a very significant change in terms of international relations”. “We can expect some surprises that will eventually spill over into other countries in the region.”
In the account command. Here are 20 differences I have with Uribismo:
1. In my government, I will reactivate the country and leave behind the neoliberal policies and violence that left us behind, leading to food selfsufficiency and forcing people to leave the countryIng. Rodolfo Hernandez 🇨🇴! (@ingrodolfohdez) May 31, 2022
In power for the first time
An unprecedented achievement is being sought in this election: the seizure of power by the left. Colombia has elected candidates with progressive ideas in the past, but never one linked to social movements and of popular origin like Gustavo Petro. This is the third time he has run for president and the last time he finished as a runnerup. If you win this year, you will achieve something unprecedented. “Once the left comes to power, it will be interesting to see how economic sectors will behave,” observes Arthur Murta. However, when it comes to Petro’s victory, experts are divided. For Ricardo Leães it remains to be seen “whether the result will be well received or contested”. He recalls that Colombia has “assassinated leftwing candidates” in the past and that during the first round Petro “had to wear bulletproof vests and walk safely because of the dangerous scenario”.
Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s leftwing presidential candidate, won the first round of elections with 40% of the vote │EFE/Mauricio Dueñas Castañeda
There are concerns about how the paramilitary groups will behave as one of the Petro government’s plans is to fight them and also nonstate forces. “If he wins the election, there could be some kind of third round,” Leães warns. Arthur Murta believes the former guerrillas can take power despite possible demonstrations. “The left has already managed to have a majority in Congress,” the professor recalls. “The scenario we have now is that the left is showing a sign of progress since 2021. The right, which may have more difficulty governing, is,” he adds. Eduardo Fayet also argues that Petro will take over if elected. What may happen over time is greater political instability in Colombia “whether or not it manages to step up some relatively quick and effective measures.”
The winner’s challenges
Regardless of who wins Sunday’s election, the challenges will be great in the years to come. “Colombia is in a political, social and economic crisis,” explains Murta, noting that the country is in an economic downturn and has high levels of unemployment and poverty. “The new President needs to think: Where does the international integration of the Colombian economy stand today?” Edward agrees. For him, those elected must create income and employment so that the population can invest “in sensible structural change”.
Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández are contesting the presidential elections in Colombia this Sunday 19 │RAUL ARBOLEDA/AFP
The second challenge concerns the social part, exacerbated by the Covid19 pandemic and the increase in the inequality index. “The social and political fabric of Colombia is also broken. The next president will have to sew,” predicts Murta. A third point to work on is the issue of peace, an important issue in this country. “Every Colombian president faces the challenge of ending a decadeslong conflict,” explains Ricardo Leães. It is urgent for Colombia that paramilitaries and guerrilla groups lay down their arms and that the country achieve “a certain normality”.
The professor also speaks of the need for the government to regain control of the entire territory so that “there is no longer a risk of insurgent groups playing a bigger role than they should”. Eduardo adds that we can consider this challenge as “social stability” and that it must be unfolded in three important factors: agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), no popular reaction in terms of challenging the president’s decisions, and combating police violence. “These three aspects together are a way to improve the maturity of the fledgling Colombian democracy.”