The Kremlin has had some successes and is gaining ground, albeit slowly. The Kiev leader admits that the situation for Ukrainians is difficult. The main target Severodonetsk, which is encircled
After a long series of setbacks, the Kremlin has had some successes. Mariupol’s die-hards surrendered, while its troops made strides in Donbass, which President Zelensky indirectly acknowledged: the difficult situation, the leader admitted in his night message. The advance in the eastern sector went as expected. The Russians have destroyed a bridge connecting Lysychansk with Severodonetsk, the city that has become the main target and is now surrounded: it risks becoming the new Mariupol, unofficial sources warn. The next step will be to focus on Kramatorsk, but there are still many challenges to overcome.
For weeks, Intelligence had anticipated a consistent offensive, concentrations and the quality of detachments reported it, despite reports of battalions with ailing personnel. Finally, the units in Moscow gained ground thanks to a number of factors – a few kilometers a day. First of all, the devastating artillery: Sometimes experts point out that it is not precise enough, because of the cadence it has an effect over time. And when the bombings are incessant, it lasts. The logistic lines would be less fatigued or in any case able to support the effort. The General Staff relied on smaller formations with fewer needs. The long calibers, the tanks, the Terminators (armoured vehicles armed with cannons and missiles), a reconnaissance with more precise targeting by the drones favored the plans: the cannons that had just arrived from the USA were also targeted. Frequent night raids by special forces deployed in an area that is not huge.
The more agile deployment – relatively speaking – contained casualties but ran into traps. Like some attempts to cross rivers that ended in disaster: a single collision, that of the now-famous pontoon on the Seversky Donets River, would have killed nearly 500 soldiers and destroyed 85 vehicles. However, here is persistence: the machine did not stop and took advantage of the vulnerabilities of Ukrainians, both accidental and chronic. Insufficient ammo, fewer weapons, defenses not always up to the hammer blow they receive every hour. Reports have shown how the territory, a component that complements the army, was sometimes abused, being sent to the front lines without proper equipment and even soldiers being disabled. Some units – like the Russian ones – have gaps that are never filled, with breaks in the chain of command and an inability to prepare.
The conflict forced the generals to advance, reducing (or skipping) training and dispersing platoons. One officer said his brigade had to disperse soldiers called up for training for fear of being hit by Russian missiles. The territorial was certainly crucial north of Kyiv, while it would have proved less effective on other fronts. When Zelenskyy surprisingly changed the number one in office since January a few nights ago, it means that he felt it necessary to make a change. A scenario reflected in the Russian one: Vladimir Putin purged or suspended a few generals because he blamed them for the failures.
Analysts argue that the army’s shortcomings are structural, related to mentality and approach, they have been doing this for decades, are reluctant to change, and they faced an enemy full of surprises. However, it is also true that this method has allowed the officers to insist, especially in the Donbass, where the terrain is more favorable, with large spaces, fewer forests, near the ridge. And indeed, the liberation of the region was one of the clearly stated goals: probably because they think and hope to get there.
The judgments of both contenders are influenced by one fact: we never have the full picture. Propaganda creates fog. They are preliminary opinions, mixing historical knowledge with the record of what happened: doubts about Russia’s quotes to expand the mission, to continue the march. There are several points affecting duelists: the conditions of the men, the possibility of replacing them, morale, the flow of war material in favor of the Ukrainians. Moscow and Kyiv have similar needs, although those going on the attack need a ratio of at least 3 to 1 in their favor. a moment where something useful.
The British newspaper Guardian writes that the Russians brought about 50 demolitions experts from Syria, technicians who built the barrel bombs that were dropped on rebellion towns and villages. However, it is not clear what contribution they could make given the differences. The same newspaper had spoken of the mobilization of several hundred Arab mercenaries, a presence that was not apparent. Sending Iranian mortars to Ukraine through a specific route is always part of the Middle East trend: it would be weapons seized by the US some time ago on board a ship bound for Yemen, aid for the Houti Shia guerrillas. They are fragments. Zelensky’s gunners need a lot more: SPGs, armored guns, long-range missile systems, parts to stop the invader and keep them away.
May 22, 2022 (Modification May 22, 2022 | 18:29)
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