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EU leaders had to think about how to stop Viktor Orbán from weakening Brussels' support for Kiev, officials and diplomats said, after the Hungarian leader's intransigence on Ukraine aid hit a new low in his relations to the Union.
At Thursday's summit of EU leaders in Brussels, Orbán unexpectedly gave in on accession negotiations after being persuaded by Chancellor Olaf Scholz to leave the room for coffee, effectively abstaining after he had signaled for weeks that he would oppose any move to start talks.
But a few hours later, he ruined Kiev's moment of celebration – and pleased the Kremlin – by vetoing the four-year, 50 billion euro financial aid package.
Even by Orbán's standards, it was a stunning performance that caught his partners off guard. His refusal to seek compromise on a key EU security issue dismayed even those who have argued with him for years.
Daniel Hegedüs, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund think tank, said: “It was a low point for the EU and a new peak of escalation.”
For much of his 13 years in power, Orbán used an antagonistic relationship with the EU to mobilize voters and force financial concessions from Brussels. His current conflict with Brussels is the suspension of 20 billion euros in funding over concerns about the rule of law and fundamental rights, but EU officials are trying to limit his ability to thwart the bloc's agenda.
“He adopts a behavior and we all learn it. We all see what is needed to trigger it and that is money,” said a senior EU diplomat.
A billboard showing EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Alexander Soros, son of the American-Hungarian George Soros: “Let us not dance to their songs!” “National consultation”, last month in Budapest © Attila Kisbenedek /AFP via Getty ImagesIn 2019, Orbán launched an anti-EU poster campaign, portraying then-European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker as a puppet of Hungarian-born billionaire philanthropist George Soros. With European Parliament elections taking place in June, similar posters featuring Ursula von der Leyen, Juncker's successor, and Alex Soros, the philanthropist's son, have recently resurfaced on the streets of Budapest.
A long-time Eurosceptic and self-proclaimed “illiberal democrat,” he has taken a tough stance at several previous summits, vowing to abandon the EU's 1.8 trillion-euro budget and pandemic recovery fund in 2020 or an 18-billion-euro one a year ago. Blocking euro aid package for Ukraine just to prevent withdrawal.
“He is always transactional, never ideological,” said one European diplomat. “And we shouldn’t underestimate the fact that he likes to be the center of attention.”
But in the run-up to last week's summit, EU leaders struggled to figure out exactly what the wily leader wanted. Was he following Russian President Vladimir Putin's instructions or trying to pressure Brussels to release frozen funds?
The day before EU leaders met in Brussels, the Commission agreed to release 10 billion euros of frozen funds to Hungary, saying the country had implemented reforms to strengthen the independence of the judiciary. EU officials said the concession was performance-based but the timing was helpful.
Orbán and his allies had repeatedly said that his opposition to aid to Ukraine had nothing to do with EU funding for Hungary. But as the summit ended on Friday, he finally named his price: the payment of the remaining 20 billion euros in funds.
“This is a great opportunity for Hungary to make it clear that it should get what it deserves,” Orbán told Hungarian public radio. “Not half or a quarter, but the whole thing. We demand fair treatment and now we have a good chance of achieving this.”
The Hungarian leader also noted that he still has 75 opportunities to block Ukraine's accession process, as each stage requires the unanimous consent of EU members. Making matters worse, Hungary takes over the bloc's six-month rotating presidency in July, providing further potential leverage.
However, any further release of funds is likely to meet with strong resistance.
MEPs rounded the commission for the payment of 10 billion euros last week. “It's blackmail. Nothing less,” said Daniel Freund, a German Green MEPon X
The remaining 20 billion euros owed to Hungary will be withheld under a separate procedure – a new “conditionality” mechanism that gives Brussels the leverage it needs to reverse rule of law and democracy violations. Giving in to Budapest would seriously damage his credibility, officials said.
“If we go too far in this direction, we have to recognize where that leads us,” said the senior EU diplomat. “We have to protect the integrity of the process.”
Some officials have considered reactivating the so-called Article 7 criminal procedure for violations of the rule of law, which could lead to the suspension of voting rights. It can be blocked by another member state, but a change of government in Poland means Hungary no longer has a guaranteed protector. Nevertheless, many countries have concerns about using what is essentially the EU's greatest weapon against a member state.
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Instead, officials said, the priority was to persuade Orbán to back down on funding by clarifying what they described as the “full cost” of his isolation.
If that fails, the other 26 EU members could reach an agreement on their own, although this would take time and only provide a short-term solution.
“Maybe Hungary can cause more trouble,” said a third senior EU official present at the summit. “Maybe Hungary can force us to use some other instruments. But ultimately Hungary cannot stop us from providing money to Ukraine.”
“He is not Putin’s puppet as some might think,” the official added. “And many do.”