The war in Ukraine will soon enter its third year, and the time that has passed since Russia's attack has permanently changed Europe's geopolitical landscape. In January 2024, renowned think tank ECFR surveyed more than 17,000 people in twelve European countries to see how Europeans currently view the situation after two years of war and ahead of the EU and US elections. The resulting report, “Wars and Elections: How European Leaders Can Maintain Public Support for Ukraine,” paints a mixed picture.
Although only ten percent of Europeans currently believe that Ukraine will win the war against Russia, there is broad support among the majority for maintaining or increasing the level of European aid, even if there are major changes in US policy.
Compromise is most likely in the eyes of Europe
Declining confidence in the Ukrainian war effort is visible across Europe, and even in the most optimistic member states surveyed (Poland, Sweden and Portugal), less than one in five (17 percent) believe Kiev can win. The predominant opinion in all countries (37 percent on average) is that there will have to be a compromise solution between Ukraine and Russia. About 20 percent think there will be a Russian victory.
But support for Ukraine remains broad in Europe, although there are some countries where the majority would prefer to pressure Kiev to accept an agreement: only three countries (Sweden, Portugal and Poland) have a preference for supporting Ukraine in retaking its territory (50 percent, 48 and 47 percent).
In five other countries (Austria with 49 percent, Hungary with 64 percent, Greece with 59 percent, Italy with 52 percent and Romania with 50 percent) the majority is in favor of reaching an agreement. Elsewhere, the public is divided, including in France and Germany, where there are relatively large groups of supporters of both solutions.
Responsibility for the fate of Ukraine
In the eyes of many, the war in Ukraine is vital to the existence of Europe, much more so than the conflict between Israel and Hamas. According to the survey, people also feel Europe's responsibility for the war in Ukraine.
Science
The war in Ukraine has put psychological pressure on Europeans
But the same uncertainty factor applies to both: Trump could win the US election, and that would likely have a major impact on the wars. According to the survey, 56 percent of Europeans questioned would be “disappointed” if Trump returned to the White House – with one exception: Hungary. Here, 27 percent said they were “satisfied” with this result, only 31 percent said they were “disappointed”. Not surprisingly, Hungarian Trump fans were among the supporters of the ruling party, FIDESZ. In other countries with strong right-wing parties, there were fewer people who would be satisfied with a second Trump term.
In case of default in the USA: European compensation
Across Europe, the dominant concern is that Trump will have a negative impact on Ukraine's war fortunes: on average, 43 percent thought that a President Trump would make a Ukrainian victory less likely. Only nine percent had a different opinion.
If Trump wins the election and becomes president again, US financial and military support could soon be reduced. In this case, 41 percent of respondents would be in favor of maintaining European aid (21 percent) or expanding it (another 20 percent). About a third would prefer to follow the US example and limit support.
Politics must define your “peace”.
The study's authors, Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, noted a few trends over the course of the inquiry: Russia's war against Ukraine is seen primarily as a European war for which Europeans are also responsible. Secondly, there is pessimism about the outcome of the war, especially as the feeling of unity in each country begins to wane. Finally, according to Krastev and Leonard, there is the realization that the Trump effect on world politics has already begun while it is still in the initial blocks.
This situation will make it necessary to find a European definition of peace in Ukraine. “And to continue to make a convincing case for support for Ukraine, EU leaders need to change their tone so as not to appear unrealistic to a skeptical public,” the report states. The challenge is to define what it means in practice to be for “peace”. European leaders could start by distinguishing between a “sustainable peace” and a “Russian-style peace”.
“To defend continued European support for Ukraine, EU leaders need to change the way they talk about the war,” Leonard said. The survey shows that the majority of Europeans want to avoid a Russian victory. “But they do not believe that Ukraine can regain all of its territory. The more convincing argument for a skeptical public is that military support for Ukraine could lead to a negotiated, lasting peace in Kiev's favor rather than a victory for Putin .”
Krastev: Kiev's defeat would be a defeat for Europe
Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin and Trump are trying to portray Ukraine and its supporters as a party of “eternal war” while claiming the mantle of “peace,” he said. It is crucial that Kiev and its European supporters do everything possible to avoid this distortion.
A Russian victory is not peace, according to Krastev. “If the price of ending the war turns Ukraine into a no man’s land, it would be a defeat not only for Kiev, but also for Europe and its security.”