Five attack cards mark the second anniversary of the war in Ukraine

Russia's war in Ukraine has stalled over the past year, with neither side making much progress along the hundreds of miles of front line. Attacks, including missile strikes, drone strikes and shelling by Ukrainian and Russian forces, continue to focus on the same areas where they were stuck in late 2022.

strikes by year ok

Strikes in the first year of the war

Illegally annexed

of Russia in 2014

Note: drone strikes, shelling, artillery, rocket attacks, remote-controlled explosives, landmines and IEDs. Data available from February 24, 2022 to February 16, 2024.

strikes by year ok

Area held by

Supported by Russia

Separatists

since 2014

Illegally annexed

of Russia in 2014

Note: drone strikes, shelling, artillery, rocket attacks, remote-controlled explosives, landmines and IEDs. Data available from February 24, 2022 to February 16, 2024.

strikes by year ok medium

Strikes in the first year of the war

Area held by

Supported by Russia

Separatists

since 2014

Illegally annexed

from Russia

in 2014

Note: drone strikes, shelling, artillery, rocket attacks, remote-controlled explosives, landmines and IEDs.

Data available from February 24, 2022 to February 16, 2024.

strikes by year ok

Strikes in the first year of the war

Area held by

Supported by Russia

Separatists

since 2014

Illegally annexed

from Russia

in 2014

Note: drone strikes, shelling, artillery, rocket attacks, remote-controlled explosives, landmines and IEDs. Data available from February 24, 2022 to February 16, 2024.

But fighting has intensified, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, which has tracked such incidents throughout the war. The organization recorded 9,700 combat events – armed clashes or the takeover or recapture of territory – in the second year of the war, a 32 percent increase compared to the first year. The increase was mainly due to increasing fighting in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, where Ukraine focused its failed counteroffensive.

The group recorded 22 territorial gains by Ukraine and 31 by Russia last year, compared to a total of 600 in its first year of fighting.

The second anniversary of the war comes at a critical time when fighting has turned into a battle of attrition and Kiev may run out of Western-supplied ammunition as aid fails to arrive.

“If you run out of artillery, you need more troops,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “You start sending more men to the front, and then you start losing those men.”

small multiples

In the early stages of the war the focus was on

The fighting took place around Kiev and in eastern Ukraine.

Russia conquered them

Kherson city on March 2nd.

Fierce fighting broke out on the banks of the river

Donets and near Kharkiv.

Battle

in the Mykolaiv region

north of Kherson.

At the beginning of September 2022, Ukraine retook the country

several settlements in the Kharkiv region.

Ukraine launched its Kherson

Counteroffensive in August 2022.

His forces recaptured settlements in Mykolaiv

Region and the city of Kherson, urge the

Front line to the Dnieper.

The front line has remained irrelevant

Changes since the end of 2022, with some small ones

Cities near Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia will be

the most important battlefields.

small multiples

In the early stages of the war the focus was on

The fighting took place around Kiev and in eastern Ukraine.

Russia conquered them

Kherson city on March 2nd.

Fierce fighting broke out on the banks of the river

Donets and near Kharkiv.

Battle

in the Mykolaiv region

north of Kherson.

At the beginning of September 2022, Ukraine retook the country

several settlements in the Kharkiv region.

Ukraine launched its counteroffensive in Kherson

in August 2022. His troops recaptured settlements

in the Mykolaiv region and the city of Kherson,

pushing the front line to the Dnieper.

The front remained without

significant changes since the end of 2022, with several

small towns near Donetsk and Zaporizhia

become the main battlefield.

small multiples medium

In the early stages of the war

The focus of the fighting was on the surrounding area

Kyiv and eastern Ukraine.

There were fierce fights

on the banks of the Donets

River and near Kharkiv

Russia conquered them

Kherson city on March 2nd.

Battle

in the Mykolaiv region

north of Kherson.

At the beginning of September 2022, Ukraine retook the country

several settlements in the Kharkiv region.

Ukraine launched its counteroffensive in Kherson

in August 2022. His troops recaptured settlements

in the Mykolaiv region and the city of Kherson,

pushing the front line to the Dnieper.

The front remained without

significant changes since the end of 2022,

with several small towns near Donetsk

and Zaporizhia will be

the most important battlefields.

small multiples

In the early stages of the war the focus was on

The fighting took place around Kiev and in eastern Ukraine.

Fierce fighting broke out on the banks of the river

Donets and near Kharkiv.

Russia conquered them

Kherson city on March 2nd.

Battle

in the Mykolaiv region

north of Kherson.

At the beginning of September 2022, Ukraine retook the country

Settlements in the Kharkiv region.

Ukraine launched its Kherson

Counteroffensive in August 2022. His forces

recaptured settlements in the Mykolaiv region and

the city of Kherson is pushing to the front

to the Dnieper.

The front line remains

without significant changes

since the end of 2022, with several small towns

near Donetsk and Zaporizhia

the most important battlefields.

Russia has built heavy fortifications, including barbed wire and trenches, reinforcing the front line.

This is one of the reasons why Ukrainian forces tried to make progress during the summer counteroffensive but failed.

Bergmann said that in the third year of the war, Ukraine would focus on rebuilding its infantry and replenishing its ammunition stocks, with the goal of “possibly going on the offensive in 2025.” But that may be difficult to achieve as the West's desire to send more aid to the country wanes.

Moscow has already made gradual progress this year, taking the eastern city of Avdiivka in mid-February.

“Ukraine has not tightened its line that much [in the second year] because it was hoping for a breakthrough.” Well, Bergmann said, after concentrating on the fortifications for a year, Russia was coming seems to be pushing to gain more ground.