The war in Ukraine continues despite diplomatic efforts to silence the guns. The Russian army is trying to encircle Kyiv, bombing Kharkov and Nikolaev, but the fiercest fighting this week has unfolded in Mariupol. The city, besieged for several days, with power cuts and food scarce, had a theater occupied by “several hundred” civilians bombed. At the same time, under Western sanctions, Russia is on the verge of default. 20 Minutes takes stock of the conflict in Ukraine and its challenges in four infographics.
Russian troops made little progress
Map of the situation in Ukraine on March 18 at 8:30 Moscow time. – Simon MALFATTO, Paz PIZARRO, Clea PECULIER, Kenan OJAR/AFP
Russian troops stop. Despite Vladimir Putin’s assertions of “successes,” progress on the ground has been minimal. After heavy fighting in Irpin, Kyiv is still not completely surrounded, to the point that the prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia were able to travel back and forth to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Bombing regularly hits the Dnieper and Lvov, and Russian troops are far from it.
The situation is more dangerous for Kharkov, disputed since the beginning of the war, and Nikolaev, control of which would open the way for Russian tanks towards Odessa. Hundreds of civilians flee to Odessa every day. On Sunday, an airstrike killed nine people queuing outside the store. But this week, strikes and fighting have centered in another key city: Mariupol.
Bombed theater in Mariupol
The latest events of the war in Ukraine, including the bombed-out theater in Mariupol. – Sabrina BLANCHARD, Gal ROMA / AFP
“This is no longer Mariupol, this is hell. Tamara Kanunenko, a resident, was finally able to leave her city, which had been besieged for more than two weeks. Mariupol, a strategic port that would allow Russia to link up its troops in Crimea with those in the Donbass, is no longer supplied with electricity. Its inhabitants, who hide where they can, drink water from radiators or from the river. According to the people of Kiev, more than 2,000 people have died in Mariupol so far.
The death toll could rise sharply after the bombing of the city’s theater on Wednesday. The rubble is still being cleared, but “several hundred people” have taken refuge there, the mayor’s office points out. The word “Diéti” (“Children” in Russian) was written in giant letters on the ground in front and behind the building. The Russian Air Force appears to have ignored the warning. This Friday, fighting was reported in the city center, where the corpses of civilians have been lying on the streets for several days.
US delivers kamikaze drones to Ukraine
Some elements on – Gal ROMA, Valentin RAKOVSKY, Anibal MAIZ CACERES / AFP
Joe Biden announced the shipment of air defense equipment to Ukraine, including Soviet-made S-300 missiles more practical for use by the Ukrainian army, as well as 100 drones. According to a US military source, these are “Switchblades,” so-called kamikaze drones that explode on contact with a target, and a smaller model of which is capable of destroying light armored vehicles. Enough to allow the Ukrainians to attack Russian convoys trying to encircle Kyiv, or more distant strategic targets.
Russia on the verge of default
The nearest dates of redemption of the sovereign debt obligations of the Russian Federation. – Sophie RAMIS, Gal ROMA/AFP
Russia was very close to default when it had to pay $117 million for two bonds on March 16th. After concerns about the impossibility of making a payment due to Western sanctions, especially against Russian banks, everything returned to normal … this time. The Russian Ministry of Finance stated that it had paid the necessary money, noting in the message that “the payment order for the payment of interest on bonds (…) for a total of $117.2 million (…) has been executed.” In this regard, the American bank JPMorgan received a payment from the Central Bank of Russia, said a source familiar with the situation.
After consulting with US authorities so as not to violate the sanctions, JPMorgan then wired the money to Citigroup, which is responsible for distributing the sums demanded by holders of various bonds, within thirty days. But this last-minute payment only temporarily wards off the specter of default. Several more deadlines are approaching, and the sanctions have led to a sharp fall in the ruble.
However, Russian reserves abroad are blocked, and Moscow can only rely on its own currency to pay off its foreign currency debts. Despite his threats, this week’s payment was made in dollars. But how long can the Kremlin hold out? Rating agencies further downgraded Russia’s rating, given the risk of an “imminent” Russian default.