This Saturday, February 24, 2024, the Russian invasion of Ukraine decided by Vladimir Putin enters its third year. A long effort for the army and the Ukrainian population, which is able to stay afloat thanks to important but fragile Western support.
Already two years. Since February 24, 2022, Ukraine has been resisting an invasion condemned by the international community. Vladimir Putin's soldiers have been engaged in a “blitzkrieg” for 24 months that has become a war of attrition. Kiev's armed forces are holding out at the risk of their lives. Resilience supported by Westerners and their economic and geopolitical assistance.
“This war is the big issue on the international level, all the lights are on red. We should not expect any change from Putin and certainly not a renunciation of his ambitions of revenge and the restoration of the “Russian-Soviet Empire.”,” concludes General Jérôme Pellistrandi told BFMTV.com.
Military situation, geopolitical problems, death toll… Here's what you need to know about the conflict that began two years ago at the gates of Europe through Russia.
• A frozen front line
With an army that is considered one of the best in the world, the Ukrainian military continues to manage to contain enemy soldiers in the east and south. The brief hopes of a counteroffensive that Kiev launched last June were dashed.
As shown on a French Defense Ministry map, a 1,000-kilometer front line separates the occupied territory from the zone under Ukrainian control. A border that remains almost frozen even in 2023, while more than 20% of the country is occupied by Moscow.
In February 2022, “Vladimir Putin wanted to take Ukraine in three days. Ultimately, everyone is watching the resistance of the Ukrainian people and the army,” says Dorota Dakowska, professor of political science at Science Po Aix and a specialist in Central and Eastern Europe.
The last Russian war prize: the city of Adviika, over which the two camps fought for four months. “This event, with its great symbolic impact, does not change the balance of forces on the entire front,” the French authorities stated on February 19.
In addition to the multiple fronts on the ground, the war of attrition has taken on new forms. Drone attacks from both sides have increased as the two armies also wage war in the Black Sea. Kiev, for example, recently sank a 112-meter-long warship on February 14 while it was anchored in Crimea.
“Ukrainians must hold, hold, hold. They were forced to withdraw from Adviika, so they maintain a defensive position to hold out as long as possible thanks to a strategic hybrid strategy, particularly through the use of drones and naval warfare.”, general Pellistrandi diagrams.
• A high but uncertain human toll
How many civilians or combatants from both sides have lost their lives since the war began? On both sides of the front, it is difficult to provide a consolidated estimate of the number of victims.
“Since the war escalated in February 2022, more than 10,000 civilians have been killed and around 20,000 injured in Ukraine. Of these, almost 600 children were killed and more than 1,300 were injured,” a UN spokesperson from the Agency for Ukraine told BFMTV.com.
However, the same agency assures that “the real figures are significantly higher”. In particular, it has no data on the areas occupied by Russia for two years. In Mariupol, for example, the siege claimed 25,000 lives within four months, as the Ukrainian authorities assure.
The latter did not disclose the number of dead soldiers. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told him in December 2023 that 383,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed or injured since the invasion began.
On the Russian side, the accounts are also opaque. According to a count by the Russian news site 7×7, cited by Agence France Presse, the number of civilian deaths is at least 145. As for soldiers, according to Ukrainian intelligence, in the 22 months of fighting from February 24, 2022 to January 1, 2024, 360,000 Russians lost their lives.
Taken together, these figures suggest at least a million casualties on both sides of the front. A total that could be much higher without stable and consolidated information.
• Ukrainians “don’t give up”
Have these two years of conflict broken Ukrainians' resolve? “The Russian bombings in Ukraine have no impact on the civilian population, the losses are not great enough for the Ukrainians to give up,” believes General Pellistrandi.
“History shows that bombing civilians does not harm the morale of the population, as we saw, for example, in the London Blitz during the Second World War,” he adds.
Public opinion in Ukraine overwhelmingly supports the continuation of this defensive war. A question that is solely about the survival of your country, as political scientist Dorota Dakowska explains.
“If the Russians stop fighting, there will be no more war. If Ukrainians stopped fighting, there would be no more Ukraine,” she claims.
However, the issue of recruiting new soldiers continues to worry Kiev as it needs to find replacements after two years of continuous war. There is a shortage of civilians to volunteer at the front, and President Volodymyr Zelensky wants the arrival of 500,000 additional soldiers at the front.
A draft law is currently being examined and is intended to make registration easier. Younger men could be forced to go to the front. These investigated pathways generate controversy.
On a humanitarian level, the situation is “much more extreme than a year ago,” warns the United Nations Organization in Ukraine. According to his calculations, “3.3 million people struggle every day to access the most basic services and needs,” including in Russian-occupied territories. In total, 15 million people or 40% of the Ukrainian population are “dependent on humanitarian aid”.
• Crucial but weakened Western support
Ukraine's resilience is made possible in part by the logistical, economic and geopolitical support of its Western allies. Training soldiers, sending weapons, economic support… Tens of billions are regularly spent to indirectly contain the Russian advance.
France's only bilateral civil assistance to Ukraine “amounts to almost 2.2 billion euros as of February 22, 2022,” according to the Elysée. Added to this are the funds paid by international mechanisms.
Other notable supporters in Kiev: the European Union and the United States. But both will face elections this year with a lot at stake. In Europe, for example, certain right-wing extremist parties are accused of being pro-Moscow.
According to Dorota Dakowska, the USA has become a “weak link” in the international coalition for “domestic political reasons”. The announced fight between current President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump could tip the balance again.
The Republican candidate wants to drastically or even completely cut aid to Kiev. He also called for blocking $100 billion in aid to Ukraine and Israel.
“The Europeans have realized that they might have to replace the USA if Trump were elected,” analyzes Jérôme Pellistrandi. As a result, Moscow is already trying to undermine Europe “and in particular France, its primary target.”
To attack France, the Russians have identified an interesting target: this summer's Olympic Games. They have already become the target of Russian cybercrime and “disinformation” campaigns, as Emmanuel Macron denounced.
Proof of France's investment in the Ukrainian cause: the meeting between Emmanuel Macron and his counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky last Friday. According to the general, the French president has never been so “virulent” towards Russia. An “earthquake” caused by the death in prison of political opponent Alexei Navalny, in circumstances that have yet to be clarified.
• An unpredictable outcome
Two years ago it was very difficult to predict how conflicts would develop and how long they would last. Exactly 730 days later, the outcome of the war and its duration remain unpredictable. Expansion of Western aid, Vladimir Putin's ambitions, numerous elections… There are many unknowns that need to be taken into account.
“As it stands, according to our information, we believe that the war should last the whole year and last until 2025,” says General Pellistrandi.
However, the war was to experience a somewhat less intense period. Information gathered from Paris suggests that the Russian army is unlikely to resume the offensive “before the end of spring.” According to the general, Moscow is using the lull to rebuild its armed forces. Before we go to war again.